On Saturday morning local time, the United States and Israel began a series of strikeson Iran that have set off broader fighting across the region, sending the Middle East into significant upheaval. As of writing, 6 US troops have died and it is estimated more than 200 Iranians have been killed. While there was growing expectation the United States would attack Iran as it amassed its military force in the region, The method and nature of the attack stunned many. Key surprises about Operation Epic Fury include:
The scale of the attack
Unlike in Venezuela, where the United States conducted a short, sharp, highly-targeted mission to remove President Maduro, the United States has bombed 13 sites across Iran. Ahead of the attack, the explicit goals were not clear, but President Trump has now indicated four aims: destroying ballistic missile stocks and production capacity; “annihilating” the Iranian Navy; preventing Iran from producing a nuclear weapon; and blocking Iran from supporting proxy militant groups. These aims are broader than just focusing on nuclear proliferation and require targeting more and different kinds of sites.
Taking out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei so quickly
It was unclear ahead of the attacks whether the United States would attempt to take down Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. However, by striking in the morning in Iran, before any additional attacks began, and tapping into advanced intelligence, they were able to kill Khamenei and many of Iran’s top leadership at one time.
Not building consensus first
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration spoke with the congressional Group of Eight ahead of the attacks, but, unlike prior administrations on the cusp of war, they made little attempt to appeal to the American people or the international community for support ahead of the attack.
Committing to a longer timeframe
So far, the military actions of the Trump administration have been short interventions to achieve a specific outcome. President Trump famously campaigned on the promise of “no new wars”. However, in his press conference yesterday, when he outlined the four objectives he also said the war in Iran is projected for four to five weeks, while flagging it could “go far longer than that.” He also told the New York Post that “boots on the ground” were not off the table “if they were necessary.”
On the Iranian side, the extent of their retaliatory strikes has spread to 11 countries in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon has joined the fighting, vowing to “confront aggression.”
Leaders around the world are split on supporting or condemning the US actions. The United Kingdom was one of the first countries to pledge support for the Iraq war in 2003, but Prime Minister Keir Starmer said they would not join the US strikes sayingthey do not support, “regime change from the skies.” However, Australia – another country that was quick to back the Iraq war – released a joint statement from the Prime Minister, Defence Minister and Foreign Minister on Saturday saying they, “support the United States.”
As the conflict continues, it remains to be seen where the tide of international support goes, and whether this makes a difference to the Trump administration.
