Implications of Chinese nuclear weapons modernisation for the United States and regional allies

By the early to mid-2030s, China is set to become a nuclear peer of the United States with a diversified, accurate and survivable arsenal. But Beijing’s rapid nuclear build-up is not aimed at “winning” a nuclear exchange, argues Dr Lavina Lee, Non-Resident Senior Fellow and incoming Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre and Dr John Lee, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. Instead, the CCP and PLA are using nuclear modernisation to subdue adversaries and win without fighting – by degrading decision-making, weakening the will to fight, and undermining allied trust in US extended deterrence.

Their report explains how China’s approach to nuclear weapons is reshaping strategic stability and deterrence, with major implications for the United States and its allies.