On President Trump’s 80th birthday on Sunday, the United States and Iran digitally signed a memorandum of understanding to potentially end their fighting. With the deal not yet published, both sides are spinning this as a victory. Like most deals under Trump 2.0, rather than a detailed and concrete agreement, a framework has been announced and they will need to negotiate most specifics later.

The Trump administration said the full MoU will be made public by the end of the week, but administration officials are downplaying the importance of the text of the document itself. Whether the deal is a net positive or net negative for the United States and Iran will depend on key factors, including:

Nuclear weapons

At a G7 press conference, President Trump answered questions about the Iran deal saying, “The main thing is that Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon, they’ve fully agreed to that.” Iran has repeatedly promised this in the past (including in the JCPOA). Vice President JD Vance highlighted one key difference: the deal includes a two-path option. If Iran does not take steps towards nuclear proliferation, sanctions will be lifted, previously sanctioned funds will be released and Iran may be able to access a US$300 billion development fund. However, if they pursue nuclear weapons, Vance says, “this deal ensures they will never have the resources in order to do that.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke with President Trump over the deal’s failure to address the nuclear weapons issue. Continued fighting between Israel and Lebanon is one of the biggest risks to derailing the deal.

Ballistic missiles

Early in the war, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles.” This objective has been repeatedly cited, especially amidst mixed messages about the state of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether they posed an “imminent threat” or were “obliterated” after the June 2025 bombings. So far in discussions about the new deal, no details have been released about Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran have agreed the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. President Trump said the strait will be “permanently toll-free”, but Iran is discussing charging fees “in exchange for the services that are provided.” Whether a fee differs from a toll is a reminiscent semantic debate to whether a tariff is a tax. Ultimately, whether ships can pass through the strait may come down to whether they can secure insurance.

In his press tour to discuss the deal, Vice President JD Vance emphasised that this MoU, more than anything else, resets the US-Iran relationship. Critically, the agreement is for 60 days, with the intention that outstanding issues will be resolved by then. The JCPOA took nearly two years to negotiate, but the success of this relationship reset and negotiations will be most evident in any agreement that emerges at the end of 60 days, or the absence of one.