In a joint leader’s statement in 2023 from Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom described the purpose of AUKUS to ‘promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable.’ As Australia marks the fifth anniversary of the AUKUS partnership this September, domestic support for the trilateral security partnership continues to significantly outweigh opposition. However, new polling conducted by the United States Studies Centre finds that Australians increasingly feel that the Australian Government has not properly explained the rationale for AUKUS, with only 23% of Australians agreeing (down from 27% in 2025), while those who disagree have increased to 44% from 40%.
The partnership is slated to generate 20,000 new Australian jobs, yet the projected cost of submarine procurement – the largest in Australian history – currently sits at between A$268–$368 billion. The Australian public appear divided on this trade-off; four in ten (39%) of Australians believe AUKUS is good for generating Australian jobs, but the same number also believe that AUKUS submarines are not worth the cost to Australian taxpayers.
AUKUS has garnered bipartisan support from the Australian government since the agreement’s announcement in 2021. Yet, specifics of the agreement – particularly on timing of submarine acquisition – are susceptible to changes in government leadership over the next 30 years of project implementation. Some US officials such as Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of War for Policy, have raised concerns over the United States executing the agreed upon sale of any Virginia-class submarines to Australia given that the United States has not yet met the needs of its own submarine fleet, which requires 2.5 submarines built a year and yet currently stands at only 1.2 a year. Australians also appear sceptical, with only 31% confident that Australia will receive the submarines promised by the United States.
In an effort to improve the rate of ship submarine production, it was announced in early October this year that the US will build a new shipyard in Baltimore to manufacture components for Virginia-class Submarines. With USD$6.6 billion in funding – a combination of government and private capital – the facility is set to begin operating in 2030 and increase submarine production by two per year once in operation.
While Australia’s commitment to the AUKUS partnership remains strong as it approaches the fifth anniversary of the agreement, recent polling indicates an opportunity for more clarity in government messaging to ensure thatthe Australian public understands the purpose and planned trajectory of the agreement over the coming decades.
