This week American voters delivered an epic rebuke to Donald Trump and his style of politics.
The Democrats’ massive victory does not mean America is now lurching to the left or that the Democrats have a clear policy mandate of their own.
But it does show what polls have demonstrated all along: that most Americans do want leaders who are decent, who do not peddle in division, who care about practical solutions to problems such as inflation or immigration and who want to see the US respected and influential in the world.
In 2024 exit polls showed that Americans elected Trump not because they relished his divisive and self-referential tone but because they thought his combative decisiveness would solve their problems. It might well have, but instead the President indulged in power plays that made all their problems worse. And it made voters feel unhappy about their country. Not after Tuesday.
Presidents rarely fare well in these midterm elections. Only Franklin Roosevelt and George W. Bush successfully gained seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate in midterms. But Republicans had some tricks up their sleeve that they thought would save them this time.
The 35 Senate races were mostly in Republican territory, while Trump-friendly states such as Texas and Florida were gerrymandering house seats to build a wall against the Democrats’ counter-attack. Republicans also had a larger financial war chest backed by Trump’s deep-pocketed allies, such as Elon Musk. But the blue tsunami easily washed over all those levies and sandbags.
The numbers alone are stunning, with Democrats likely to end up with at least 250 of 435 seats in the house and 54 of 100 in the Senate. The specific results are even more historic. In Kansas, a Democrat was elected senator for the first time since 1932; and in Texas, where Democrats had not won a statewide office in 32 years, the Democrats won all the statewide races. The stunning upsets in Republican-dominated races from South Carolina to Florida and Iowa are almost too numerous to list in one column.
Trump then did the opposite or overreached on all of those issues.
Trump won in 2024 with a coalition that included Hispanics, first-time voters and highly energised MAGA supporters who wanted him to tame inflation, curb illegal immigration, end wars in the Middle East and tone down the progressives’ heavy-handed political correctness and diversity, equity and inclusion mandates.
Trump then did the opposite or overreached on all of those issues.
The Iran war and tariffs drove prices, especially for petrol, even higher. By October, voters were saying corruption and the future of democracy were becoming equally pressing concerns for them. News that Trump-linked ventures had crypto deals with Gulf investors worth billions and that Russian oligarchs spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Don Jr’s postnuptial party contrasted with stories of average Americans struggling to pay rent and fill their petrol tanks.
In 2024, the Trump campaign blasted Kamala Harris with the line “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” This time Democrats played that theme back at Trump, most notably with Barack Obama’s line that Trump’s gaudy redecoration of the White House looked like “Saddam Hussein had opened a Cheesecake Factory” restaurant.
Trump compounded his own goals on prices and corruption with a draconian deportation policy and his interventions in Republican primaries, where he put up loyalists who proved to be incredibly weak candidates in the once safe seats in Texas and South Carolina.
The Democrats understandably are giddy but have to manage their transition to power carefully. Their own party is not popular and they have a fractious caucus to manage now. The progressive left will want vengeance on Trump while the pragmatic centrists will want to prioritise action on prices and healthcare.
But the margins of victory in the house and Senate were so big that Democrat leaders will not find themselves beholden to the activist left the way Republican house leaders were confounded by their own activist right when they had much smaller margins to navigate.
The surge of newly elected officials also comes from former Republican districts, where more radical elements of the progressive agenda have less of a foothold.
New York Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, the presumptive Speaker of the house, seemed to hit that balance right in his speech on election night when he said there would be oversight investigations of corruption along with legislation to address cost-of-living concerns.
It does not look as if Democrats will go for a third impeachment of Trump since they do not have the numbers to convict him in the Senate, but they will likely proceed with impeachment of Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and subpoenas of Musk and other Trump allies who will have to explain themselves regarding things like the Department of Government Efficiency cuts to aid and public services as well as the denial of satellite support for Ukraine.
Congress also will to reassert its prerogatives under article one of the constitution, especially on the budget where the White House has used the Republican majority to move around budget items approved by congress with impunity.
There could be a bipartisan bill that restores healthcare and other benefits Democrats want and increases defence spending for Republicans, who are less beholden to Trump. Markets will not like the higher spending this would entail, but Trump and the White House will hate even more the loss of a pliable congress since the budget terms will constrain Trump’s options on everything from immigration enforcement to Ukraine.
Trump is not politically dead, of course. He can veto legislation he does not like, which would force the Democrats to find two-third majorities in both chambers to override that veto. The veto carries risks, though, since blocking legislation on cost of living or anti-corruption will put Republicans in an even worse position for 2028.
As commander-in-chief, Trump will have the authority to launch military attacks on Iran to demonstrate resolve or to force a negotiated outcome on Tehran. His problem will be that Iranian retaliation could widen the war and precipitate limits on spending from congress that he would not want.
Trump will turn up the volume on the diplomatic front like every other president who found themselves checkmated by an opposition-controlled congress. A Quad summit later this year would be good news. A trilateral Yalta cosplay summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping would not.
The big question is whether Trump goes for his usual defiant shock and awe or whether he is so shocked and awed by the result that he uncharacteristically moderates his ambitions.
Congress would applaud the former and likely critique the latter, particularly if national security Republicans unafraid of Trump align with Democrats to pass resolutions supporting allies or impose budget conditions on the administration that prevent follow-through on anything he promises to Xi and Putin.
The big question is whether Trump goes for his usual defiant shock and awe or whether he is so shocked and awed by the result that he uncharacteristically moderates his ambitions. One indication will be who he hires as chief of staff if Susie Wiles steps down as expected. A loyalist such as Stephen Miller would probably be happy to go down in a flaming Gotterdammerung of MAGA ambitions, but a former Republican house leader such as Mike Johnson or Kevin McCarthy would focus Trump on working with congress. Before Tuesday the betting would have been on a defiant Trump, but the magnitude of the defeat and his tone in interviews since are keeping people guessing.
All eyes also will turn to the 2028 presidential elections. Democrats’ domination of statewide races in Republican strongholds such as Texas will give them policy tools, credibility and grassroots organisational advantages that will require Republicans to fight their way back into once safe terrain in two years. There is no scenario where Republicans win the White House without Texas so this will be an uphill battle. It is also worth noting that no party has retained the White House after a president this unpopular since the 1876 election of Rutherford Hayes.
That said, Democrats are entirely capable of ruining their own prospects. This election yielded a range of talented and telegenic candidates from Jon Ossoff in Georgia to people not on the ballot but successful on the airwaves, such as former Biden cabinet member Pete Buttegieg and former ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. This is the first open primary for both parties since 2016 and there will be a crowded debate stage, especially for Democrats.
One can expect an energetic push from the progressive left but the shifting of South Carolina primary to the front of the list and the new growth of red-state Democrats will probably favour a more pragmatic centrist. But who knows. Contingency matters. An unexpected downturn in the economy or disastrous outcome in the Middle East could fuel the progressive left going into 2028.
Republicans would like nothing more. In fact, that may be their only shot. Vice-President JD Vance has already started separating himself from Trump by blaming the Iran war for the result. Trump was gracious and said he did not disagree, but at some point Vance’s effort to differentiate himself is likely to trigger Trump’s ire.
At that point, Secretary of State Marco Rubio might step up and could be more formidable since he retains credibility with establishment Republicans and would benefit from Trump’s imprimatur. But at some point Rubio’s support from the establishment or the Trump imprimatur will become a liability with one or the other.
There could be a somewhat new face on the Republican side, but as I learned working on John McCain’s campaign in 2008, even an independent-minded maverick cannot run away from the shadow of an unpopular incumbent.
What can be said is that America’s allies saw this week that democracy is an incredible corrective. Public opinion polls suggested that Trump’s style of isolationism and authoritarianism were never sustainable and now voters have confirmed that with conviction. Candidates who emphasised resentment and division failed while candidates who ran on unity won.
Adversaries often mistake diversity and democratic contestation for weakness.
During his victory speech on election night James Talarico of Texas had banners around him that read “Love thy neighbour”. Dystopian descriptions of an America on the verge of civil war were dispelled with scenes of peaceful and joyful voters turning out in what will be record numbers.
Claims that America was becoming an authoritarian state no different from China were belied by scores of firsts: the first female Native American governor; the first black female governors in many states; the first black Speaker of the house; the first Muslim member of the Senate; and surging popularity for a Jewish senator from the south. Progress in America always comes with friction and a painful step backward for every inspiring step forward. Adversaries often mistake diversity and democratic contestation for weakness. Allies should not.
