On 3 November, tens of millions of Americans will vote for their representatives to the 120th US Congress.
This year’s midterm elections arrive amid lawsuits, electoral disputes and accusations of interference by all sides of politics. President Donald Trump now faces the first, and last, nationwide electoral test of his second term, which could shape his last two years in office.
So, what are midterm elections, what can Australians expect to happen and do they have any impact on a president who suggested back in June that he could be “by far the most powerful person that has ever walked this planet”?
What are the midterms?
Every two years, both chambers of Congress — the US equivalent of Australia’s federal parliament — get a shakeup. Facing voters are 435 members of the lower house, the House of Representatives; a third of the 100 Senators who sit in the upper house; and thousands of races for state-level positions, like governors and attorneys general. Outside a presidential year, these elections are called “midterms,” marking the rough midpoint of a president’s four-year term.
Almost every president in modern American history has at some point faced a Congress with one or both legislative chambers controlled by the opposition party.
Since the November 2024 elections, Republicans have enjoyed a governing trifecta: control of the House, Senate and the presidency. Yet, unlike in Australia, where the prime minister must command a majority in the lower house to lead, almost every president in modern American history has at some point faced a Congress with one or both legislative chambers controlled by the opposition party.
Who is on the ballot this cycle?
The House
Members of the House of Representatives are elected for two-year terms to represent one of 435 congressional districts. Each state is guaranteed at least one seat, with the rest apportioned based on population size. This means that House representation varies widely across the country, with some states like California (52) and Texas (38) boasting large delegations, and smaller states like Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming each holding only a single seat in the chamber.
While all 435 House seats are up for election in November, fewer than two dozen are considered genuine toss-ups thanks to gerrymandering decreasing the number of truly competitive seats. A party must win 218 seats to hold the majority in the House of Representatives. The Republican Party currently commands the tightest majority of either party in almost a century (219–214). The Democratic Party needs a net gain of only four seats to win control of the chamber.
The Senate
Like their Australian counterparts, US Senators serve six-year terms. This means only a third of Senate seats — 35 due to two special elections held in Florida and Ohio — will be contested this cycle. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, with the rest held by Democrats (45) and their independent allies (2).
To overturn control of the chamber, the Democratic Party needs to win 51 seats, because in a 50-50 Senate, Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote for Republicans. This means that Democrats require a net gain of four seats — flipping four seats and holding on to vulnerable seats such as in Michigan — to win a majority in the Senate.
State-level elections
Beyond federal congressional races, a smattering of contests for state-level legislative, executive and judicial officials will also be decided on election day.
While they may garner less attention, state-level offices carry out responsibilities which can have far-reaching, and often national, implications. For example, since the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022, state ballot measures have been decisive in determining abortion access across the country. State officials were also propelled into the spotlight during the 2020 presidential election, when the Republican Secretary of State of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, famously rejected President Trump’s request to “find” votes in the critical swing state.
Although roles and responsibilities differ state-by-state, below is a brief summary of the key offices up for election this November:
- Governors: This cycle, 36 governorships will be on the ballot. Like Australian premiers and chief ministers, governors lead their state’s executive branch.They prepare state budgets, sign or veto legislation, and, in many states, are responsible for appointing judges, cabinet members and senior state officials.
- Secretaries of state: Twenty-six states will elect their secretary of state, who — in 23 of those cases — serves as the state’s chief election officer and oversees how elections are run.
- Attorneys general: Commentators have noted that this cycle will see "unprecedented” turnover of state attorneys general, with 31 states (including the District of Columbia) set to choose their chief legal officer. These top law enforcement officials are key players in the regulation and enforcement of state laws and in challenging federal actions.
- Ballot measures: Many voters will also vote directly to amend elements of their states’ laws or constitution. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 146 propositions will be put to voters this year in ballot measures on issues ranging from abortion and redistricting to taxation and the conduct of elections, similar in number to midterms over the last decade.
What will happen?
Since the 1930s, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats during midterm elections. In 2018 during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost 41 seats in the chamber. There have only been two exceptions in modern history — in 1998 under Bill Clinton and 2002 under George W Bush; two presidents buoyed by high approval ratings who saw their parties gain seats in the midterm elections.
This year, top election forecaster Charlie Cook has called a Democratic sweep of the House in November a “done deal.” Democrats are widely expected to pick up at least 5 and as many as 30 House seats — enough to take control of the chamber for the remainder of Trump’s second term. The Republican majority in the powerful US Senate may be harder to overturn, likely hinging on the results of about seven hotly contested toss-up races.
While many commentators are predicting a “blue tsunami,” others have argued there are reasons for Democrats to be cautious.
Yet, while many commentators are predicting a “blue tsunami,” others have argued there are reasons for Democrats to be cautious. The Democratic Party remains deeply unpopular, gerrymandering has tilted the electoral map in the GOP’s favour, and the Republican Party continues to hold a clear financial advantage. Moreover, the accuracy of polling in recent midterm elections is no guarantee of a crystal ball in this cycle. Each of these factors could shape the result on election day.
What is driving voters to the polls?
The midterms are ultimately a referendum on the sitting president. President Trump’s current approval rating is at or near record lows.
Majorities of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance on inflation, the economy, foreign policy and immigration. Close to two-thirds of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, compared to 51% who said the same a month after he took office for the second time. A Washington Post-ABC poll found that almost half of Americans say they are financially worse off compared to when Trump returned to office in 2025: the highest share for any president since 1986.
Much of this dissatisfaction stems from the rising cost of living, which voters consistently rank as their top concern, as the deeply unpopular Iran war continues to contribute to the inflationary pressures facing Americans.
Turnout will be crucial to the result because voting is not compulsory in the United States. Polls suggest there may be a significant enthusiasm gap that could further help Democrats. Nearly half of 2024 Harris voters (48%) are very enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections. Less than a third of Trump supporters say the same.
Together, this points to a perfect storm of voter anger which could deliver significant swings for Democrats, including in GOP strongholds which voted for President Trump by double-digit margins in 2024. Current polling suggests the Democrats are competitive in reliably red states like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas. These results may prove to be historic: Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in almost a century, and in Texas the party hasn’t won a single statewide office since 1994.
Will the elections be fair?
USSC polling conducted earlier this year found that the majority of Australians (51%) and Americans (59%) expect the midterms to be mostly free and fair. However, the lead-up has been dominated by battles in Congress, the courts and state legislatures over election rules, voter rolls, mail-in ballots and ID requirements at the polls.
The lead-up has been dominated by battles in Congress, the courts and state legislatures over election rules, voter rolls, mail-in ballots and ID requirements at the polls.
While Australian national elections are conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission, US elections are decentralised and run by a complex patchwork of state-level bodies. Election rules therefore vary between states and even at the local level. President Trump has attracted attention for calling on Republicans to “nationalise” elections and “take over the voting in at least 15 places.” In February, he suggested the country “shouldn’t even have an election.”
Some commentators have long advocated for nationalising US election rules, arguing it would limit disenfranchisement, improve transparency and strengthen electoral security. But Trump’s comments raised fears among Democrats and observers that it could be a means to unduly influence voting, and Democratic governors rebuked his statements. In 2022, Republicans themselves criticised then-President Joe Biden for what they said were his efforts to “usurp state power to nationalise elections.”
Fights over partisan redistricting, or gerrymandering, have also defined the lead-up to the midterms. Over a dozen states, most notably Texas and California, have attempted to redraw their congressional maps since July 2025, in deliberate tit-for-tat attempts to fortify partisan gains and offset those of opposition parties. Yet while Republicans initially expected the changes to strengthen their position, polls suggest the party may now struggle to win many of the redrawn seats, as the voter coalition that delivered them a government trifecta in the 2024 election appears to be fragmenting.
Nevertheless, the changes highlight the continued politicisation of electoral maps in the United States, compared to the independent and nonpartisan process used in Australia. Between partisan maps and polarisation of the electorate, only 8% of seats are truly competitive toss-up races.
Why the midterms still matter for Trump
Since his second inauguration in January 2025, President Trump has enjoyed almost total dominance over the Republican-controlled US legislature. In May this year, he said: “I don’t care about the midterms.” Yet while he would continue to wield sweeping executive power regardless of the outcome of the midterms, loss of Republican control of either chamber will give Democrats a range of ways to frustrate the administration’s policy priorities and create a political headache for the president.
A Democratic majority in the House or Senate (or both) would severely restrict the administration’s legislative priorities for the next two years, requiring deep concessions for the passage of any bills. Democrats would gain significant power over government appropriations and could starve the administration’s agencies of funding. With control of the Senate in particular, Democrats could also block appointments to senior positions, most importantly to the Supreme Court.
Congressional investigations into the administration’s activities could also prove to be a source of significant political baggage for the remainder of President Trump’s term. The prospect of an unprecedented third impeachment of the president has already been a source of major speculation, though Democrats have suggested that they may instead target other administration officials given the likely difficulty of securing a conviction of President Trump in the Senate.