As US President Donald Trump’s influence shows signs of fading, Republicans weigh J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio while Democrats see Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear as an early standout for 2028.
It may be early to predict the United States' next president, but it is not too early to begin looking ahead. US President Donald Trump has already passed the peak of his political power. His approval rating has fallen to around 37%, and history suggests Democrats are favoured to regain the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, in November's midterm elections. Such a result would likely unleash congressional investigations that further weaken Trump's standing. The more he is labelled a lame duck, the more he is likely to pursue dramatic moves to prove otherwise. We may yet see the most disruptive version of Trump, but his command over the institutions of US power is unlikely to recover.
Attention is therefore shifting to the race for 2028.
The strongest Republican contender remains US Vice President JD Vance. No sitting vice president has failed to secure the party's nomination since 1952. Yet only George H. W. Bush successfully followed the vice presidency to the White House, and he benefited from Ronald Reagan's exceptional popularity. Trump's approval ratings are far lower.
Vance also faces another problem: He is the least popular vice president on record at this stage of his tenure, with a net approval rating of minus 21 points. He has tried to distance himself from Trump's war in Iran while courting conservative critics such as Tucker Carlson. That strategy may broaden his appeal, but it risks alienating Trump, who will continue to dominate the Republican nomination process. Even during Trump's political peak, Vance underperformed as a campaigner, winning his Ohio Senate race by only three points while Trump carried the state by 10.
Those weaknesses have encouraged some Republicans to look toward Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio remains broadly well-regarded and is seen as one of the administration's most experienced and dependable figures. He has reassured traditional Republicans and business conservatives without provoking the Make America Great Again wing of the party.
For now, however, Rubio appears reluctant to run in 2028. Winning a general election would require distancing himself from Trump, but doing so could destroy his chances in the Republican primaries. At 55, Rubio may instead stay loyal through Trump's term and wait until 2032, when anti-Trump sentiment has faded. Still, if Vance continues to lose political ground, Rubio could reconsider.
Democrats have yet to produce an official candidate, but several potential contenders are preparing behind the scenes. Strategists from both parties consistently identify Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear as the Democrat with the strongest general-election prospects.
Other contenders for the Democratic Party's pragmatic centre include former US ambassador to Japan and former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Both are respected for their practical approach and policy expertise, and Emanuel would bring particular strength on Asian security and economic affairs.
Their greatest challenge lies within their own party. Progressives remain wary of their pro-business, pro-police and pro-Israel positions, and both men would first have to survive Democratic primaries, where the party's left wing exerts outsized influence. Their views may align more closely with the broader electorate than with primary voters.
The progressive lane is likely to feature candidates with weaker general-election prospects, although a deeply unpopular Vance could create an opening. The leading figures are California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in 2024.
Newsom has emerged as one of Trump's most visible rivals, using the media and California's congressional redistricting fight to challenge Republican efforts in states such as Texas. Yet his political style remains distinctly Californian, making it difficult to connect with voters in culturally different early primary states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Harris faces an even steeper climb. She continues to carry negative favourability ratings and would need a remarkable primary campaign to overcome the damage from her defeat to Trump. Other progressives, perhaps backed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, may also enter the race. Even so, many Democrats now appear more focused on winning than on ideological purity, making pragmatic candidates such as Beshear better positioned for the general election.
Of course, political forecasts are rarely reliable. Two years before the 2008 election, Barack Obama was widely viewed as an ambitious first-term senator who needed another decade before seeking the presidency. Two years before the 2016 election, many pundits dismissed Donald Trump's hints that he might run at all.
By the time the 2028 campaign begins in earnest, new figures will almost certainly emerge while some of today's favourites fade. Even so, identifying today's rising contenders matters. Before long, the United States' approach toward Korea and the wider world will no longer be shaped by Trump, but by whoever succeeds him.
Beshear lacks national name recognition, yet he enjoys a remarkable 65% approval rating in deeply Republican Kentucky, the highest of any Democratic governor. His emphasis on solving everyday problems appeals to independents and moderate Republicans in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He has also shown an unusual ability to discuss progressive issues, including LGBTQ rights, in language that resonates with moderate and conservative Christians, allowing him to hold together different wings of the Democratic coalition.
The unanswered question is whether Beshear could withstand the demands of a national campaign, including relentless fundraising, media scrutiny and political attacks.