There was no surprise in the attack that US President Donald Trump ordered to take out Nicolás Maduro, the dictator of Venezuela. Trump had asserted bullying power over Venezuela for months. The shock of the explosions erupting in Caracas was only a matter of time.
Deposing Maduro is one thing. But Trump’s assertion throughout his press conference on the attack that the United States would be running Venezuela, and that the United States would take over Venezuela’s oil industry to benefit the United States, was another.
Was Trump going back to Bush-Obama nation-building and the forever wars he decried?
While there are Trump MAGA isolationists not happy with this adventure, the clear military success of the mission has subdued their voices – for now.
Trump’s framing opened another front: between the president and the Democrats in Congress. But just like so many other times over the last year, the Democrats have less impact when they fire in multiple directions.
Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut said Trump’s boost in military spending meant “throwing millions of Americans off their healthcare and taking food assistance from millions of hungry kids”.
Pete Buttigieg said that “an unpopular president, failing on the economy and losing his grip on power at home, decides to launch a war for regime change abroad”.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote that the attacks are “about oil and regime change. And they [the president’s team] need a trial now to pretend it isn’t. Especially to distract from [Jeffrey] Epstein and skyrocketing healthcare costs.”
But there was one very clear voice that cut through. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who served in Iraq, dropped his smart bomb: “I lived through the consequences of an illegal war sold to the American people with lies. We swore we would never repeat those mistakes. Yet here we are again. The American people did not ask for this, Congress did not authorise this, and our service members should not be sent into harm’s way for another unnecessary conflict.”
In coming days, there will be votes in the House of Representatives and the Senate on legislation that would prevent Trump from engaging in further military hostilities in Venezuela without the explicit approval of Congress.
Given the Republican majorities in both chambers, it is unlikely such a war powers bill will pass. Even if it does, Trump, who has contempt for any assertion of congressional power that would frustrate his exercise of executive power, will ignore it.
Every day that Trump spends on Venezuela means it is a day not spent on the economy and how Americans are faring. The issues of affordability and cost-of-living pressures have yielded Trump his worst poll numbers to date.
Trump may declare victory in the Americas. But he still may lose the political wars at home in the midterms
Trump’s messages over the weekend have not helped his presidency. The head of Colombia is next in line to get the Trump playbook for drug-dealing dictators. “He needs to watch his ass.” Cuba is clearly in the sights of Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for regime change sooner rather than later. Trump has tripled-down on Greenland. “We do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defence,” he said.
And in Iran, as the protests continue to spread, Trump’s militaristic tone is unmissable. “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
After Caracas, you must believe exactly what Trump says is coming.
He has proudly resurrected James Monroe, the fifth US president, for his 1823 declaration that the US must have dominance against foreign interference in the western hemisphere. Trump now wants to be known as author of the “Donroe Doctrine”, which he has applied against Maduro for being allied with Russia, China and Cuba.
After Venezuela, why would Putin end his war and retreat from Ukraine when he wants to expand his sphere of influence in Europe? Why would China delay acquiring Taiwan in their sphere of influence across the Asia-Pacific?
Trump may declare victory in the Americas. But he still may lose the political wars at home in the midterms. Russia and China may well win their wars to control the real estate closest to them.