There is something for Australians and regional allies to work with, even if the document states bluntly that “the days of America propping up the world like Atlas are over.”
Late last week the Trump administration released its highly awaited blueprint for American foreign policy – the National Security Strategy.
There is a persistent narrative that Trump is an isolationist. There were rumours that he will focus on so-called hemispheric defence and abandon allies in Europe and Asia to fend for themselves.
The NSS has some worrying elements, more so for those in Europe than Asia. For those in Australia, it will satisfy neither China hawks nor doves. But there is something for Australians and other regional allies to work with, even if it states very bluntly in an evocative statement that “the days of America propping up the world like Atlas are over.”
The document affirms that Trump is not into geopolitics in the conventional sense. Unlike his first 2017 National Security Strategy, it avoids entirely language that speaks to a global geopolitical contest. There is no identification of China and Russia as authoritarian revisionist states trying to change and reshape the world.
In the current NSS, China is cast as a serious rival that competes unfairly through use of state subsidies and industrial strategies, intellectual property theft, espionage and unfair trade practices. It accuses China of trying to subvert US national strength from within through its influence operations and exports of fentanyl precursors.
The point is that China is no longer framed as an ideological rival but more as a geostrategic and material competitor against the US. Strategic co-operation is presumably difficult, but the door seems open to tactical co-operation with Beijing.
Russia will be extremely pleased with the NSS. It is mentioned as a European rather than US or global problem. This means that Trump still believes the US can enjoy strategic stability with Moscow.
AUKUS will be used to increase the pressure on Australia to do and spend more rather than allow us to breathe a sigh of relief or rest on our laurels.
Whatever Trump really thinks about Russia, he believes European NATO allies should be able to handle their eastern neighbour on their own as the former have “a significant hard power advantage over Russia by almost every measure, save nuclear weapons.”
That’s if Europe can get its act together. According to the NSS, Europe’s loss of self-confidence, economic decline and the “prospect of civilisational erasure” is the result of misguided migration policies and entirely self-inflicted.
For Trump, it begins with American power, which presumably is what America First is all about.
The first order of business is internal so that it can compete economically, militarily and technologically with China and “ensure that America remains the world’s strongest, richest, most powerful, and most successful country for decades to come.”
The highest priority of national economic policy is “cultivating American industrial strength” fuelled by cheap and plentiful energy supplies. Reducing the trade deficit with not just China, but also allies is seen as part of the solution.
Clearly, national strength is contrasted with progressive politics and policies which Trump believes weakens his country. This explains the attack against what the NSS describes as “discriminatory and anti-competitive” diversity and inclusion policies and identity politics. To reclaim national strength, the NSS refers to “cultural health” which includes “reinstilling a culture of competence” or a meritocracy which has underpinned “America’s historic advantages in science, technology, industry, defence, and innovation.” Border security is also elevated as a key element of national security to counter uncontrolled migration, terrorism and drug trafficking.
This in turn elevates the western hemisphere as the highest geographic priority, and a reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine, which denies access to outside competitors (read China) by reducing their ownership and control of strategically vital assets such as the Panama Canal. If America is weak as Trump defines it, then it cannot project power nor be of much use to its allies.
In this context, regional allies will be relieved to see that the NSS places the Indo-Pacific as second in geographic priority, with the chief aim of deterring conflict over Taiwan by “preserving military overmatch” and preventing control of international waters in the South China Sea by China as a “potentially hostile power.”
While the NSS is more forgiving of Asian allies than it is of its European ones, they are still expected to “step up and spend – and more importantly do – much more for collective defence.” This includes providing greater military access to ports and facilities for US forces, as well as real capability to that contributes to deterring aggression.
This last message will have weighed heavily on Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong as they meet with their counterparts this week for AUSMIN consultations.
The US will probably have once again demanded more from Australia than the currently promised increase in defence spending from 2 per cent currently to 2.3 per cent by 2033-34. The NSS mentions Australia and Taiwan as countries that needed to increase their defence spending.
As is well known, AUKUS and our purchase of new frigates leave little to spare for missile defence and long-range strike, both considered essential in a more dangerous environment where the risk of conflict is increasing.
When Anthony Albanese met Donald Trump several weeks ago, the US president promised that it was full speed ahead for AUKUS.
When read alongside the NSS, that presidential endorsement means AUKUS will be used to increase the pressure on Australia to do and spend more, rather than allow us to breathe a sigh of relief or rest on our laurels.