The United States and its Indo-Pacific allies and partners risk losing the deterrence game with China on missile defence unless they join forces on Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD), a new report from the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney argues.
In 2025, USSC convened a tabletop exercise that brought together experts from Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States (JASTU) to test strategies for coordinated IAMD operations in a conflict with China. In Missiles and multipolarity: Can an Indo-Pacific coalition defeat China’s missile overmatch? authors Research Fellow Dr Christopher J. Watterson and Senior Adviser for Defence Strategy Professor Peter J. Dean share the findings from the tabletop exercise.
“No individual country can counter China’s missile production, but we needed to answer the question: Together, can US allies and partners beat China on the missile front?” Prof. Dean said, “The answer seems to be ‘not yet’, but we can certainly close the gap.”
The report notes that the five JATSU jurisdictions are united in prioritising deterrence in their most recent defence strategies, but significant uplift is needed to build an effective, collective form of IAMD deterrence. The report further identifies Coalition IAMD operating concepts that are both operationally advantageous and politically feasible for near-term Indo-Pacific contingencies.
“The scenarios tested collective capacity to deter by denial and deter by punishment,” Prof. Dean noted, “Ultimately, for deterrence to be effective, it must be credible. Our deterrence credibility grows when Japan, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and the United States join forces.”
- Missiles and multipolarity: Can an Indo-Pacific coalition defeat China’s missile overmatch? is now available to view or download.
Key recommendations
- JASTU policy makers should integrate IAMD assets under jurisdiction-level battle management systems and establish now (in the pre-conflict phase) the capability to share track data with coalition partners through these respective systems.
- JASTU militaries should promote military-to-military engagements that build fluency with respective IAMD systems and allow partner militaries to identify and seize opportunities for closer coordination.
- JASTU industry should prioritise the development of open architecture systems that can readily ‘talk to’ other IAMD systems in networked data architectures.
- JASTU academics should lead public discussions and convene stakeholders to develop concepts, public awareness, and social license for Coalition IAMD.