Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrived in Australia on Sunday to advance the most dynamic bilateral relationship in the Indo-Pacific today. She is released a new economic security agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that leverages bilateral complementarities in critical minerals and natural gas and proposes economic rules sought by the two countries with the lowest tariff rates of the top 20 economies in the world. The deepening defence relationship is symbolised by Australia’s decision to procure and build 11 of Japan’s Mogami-class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. The publics in both countries are squarely behind this expanding partnership, with polls consistently showing that Australians see Japan as the most trustworthy country in Asia.
Yet the Japan-Australia partnership has moved so quickly that the commentariat has sometimes had trouble explaining exactly what Japan means for Australia or where the relationship is heading. One red herring published recently warned that partnership with Japan could lead Australia into a war with China given the current friction between Tokyo and Beijing. This assertion misses both the origins of the current Sino-Japanese spat and the implications for Australia.
Japan’s goal is not confrontation with China, but instead to establish a stable and productive relationship with Beijing determined by mutual respect free of embargoes, military pressure and other forms of coercion.That approach bears strong resemblance to the goals of Albanese own “stabilisation” policy towards China. The difference is that Japan has suffered far more military provocations than Australia has. The live fire exercises conducted by Chinese warships around Australia and New Zealand last year gave a small flavour of what Japan’s Navy and Coast Guard have been experiencing for years in the East China Sea and Pacific Ocean. And Takaichi knows that Australia can also expect more of the same.
To maintain the status quo against China’s coercive pressure Japan has increased its defence spending, tightened defence relations with the United States, and deepened security cooperation with key partners in the region with Australia at the top of the list. The legislation that paved the way for this greater collective defence cooperation was unprecedented for pacifist Japan so the National Diet attached provisions that military operations alongside like-minded partners in a crisis would only be allowed “if Japan’s national survival” were at stake. When Prime Minister Takaichi was asked in the Diet last November whether a Chinese attack on Taiwan would represent such a situation (a reasonable question given that the PLA was in the middle of the largest military exercises around Taiwan in history only 70 kilometres from Japan), she said out loud what every Japanese official knows – it would. Beijing responded by blacklisting over 20 of Japan’s top corporations and imposing illegal and painful bans on rare earth exports to Japan. Takaichi refused to back down and the public rewarded her with a sweeping victory in February elections. Interestingly the Asan Institute in Seoul found that Takaichi is now also the most popular world leader in Korea because of her steadfastness in the face of Chinese pressure (a real anomaly given the complicated history of Japan-Korea relations). Australians, who have been subjected to similar economic embargoes from China, should not want Japan to cave either. Rather than increasing risk for Australia, Japan’s stance reinforces the lesson that embargoes and pressure will not work.
A second flawed narrative around the burgeoning Japan-Australia partnership is that both countries are looking for an alternative to America. Albanese and Takaichi will undoubtedly compare notes on the challenges of dealing with their mutual friend in Washington. However, Takaichi is not looking for separation from the United States –quite the opposite. Polls show that 93% of the Japanese public support the US-Japan alliance despite record-low trust in the United States under Trump. At the same time Takaichi is deepening cooperation with Australia, she is also embarking on new command and control relationships, joint development of advanced weapons systems, and deliberate preparations for contingencies in North Asia with the United States. On the economic side Japan’s investment in the US manufacturing and energy sectors has more than doubled since 2010. Some commentators will spin the Takaichi visit as pursuit of a post-American “plan B” but the security and economic data tell a different story. And in that Japan is not so different from Australia either.
Still, the combination of Chinese bullying and American unpredictability will add fuel to the Albanese-Takaichi summit. The Japan partnership is one of the best tools in the Australian foreign policy toolkit. Japan and Australia are poised on opposite ends of the First and Second Island Chains to help shore up the resilience of countries like the Philippines that also facing harassment from China. Australia and Japan are also well-positioned to turn the new bilateral economic security cooperation agreement into a framework where other countries, including the United States, will start defining the rules for trade and investment in a more geopolitically contested world. And Japan-Australia settings on energy investments and exports could form the core of a durable regional energy alliance in Asia in the wake of the Iran War. During uncertain times like this it is good to have friends.