The US State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress – with the Supreme Court, the military chiefs and the diplomatic corps present – is the biggest pulpit a president has for talking to the American people, and indeed the world.
This year will be different. Instead of Democrat Nancy Pelosi, the honour of introducing Joe Biden goes to Kevin McCarthy, the new Republican Speaker of the House, who will be sitting beside Vice President Kamala Harris. That new tableau captures the raw political truth for the next two years: any Biden legislation McCarthy opposes is dead. It cannot pass the House and will not become law.
Biden also takes the dais with a blistering employment report: 517,000 jobs created in January; unemployment at a 53-year low of 3.4 per cent; black unemployment at a historic low of 5.6 per cent.
Biden comes to the rostrum stronger than many anticipated before the midterm elections. In December, building on big wins on infrastructure, clean energy and healthcare, Biden secured legislation to fund the government, to further aid Ukraine, and to prevent a replay of attempts to overturn a presidential election.
Biden also takes the dais with a blistering employment report: 517,000 jobs created in January; unemployment at a 53-year low of 3.4 per cent; black unemployment at a historic low of 5.6 per cent. Also, inflation is receding and interest rates are within sight of their summit.
Biden comes to the rostrum stronger than many anticipated before the midterm elections. In December, building on big wins on infrastructure, clean energy and healthcare, Biden secured legislation to fund the government, to further aid Ukraine, and to prevent a replay of attempts to overturn a presidential election.
Biden also takes the dais with a blistering employment report: 517,000 jobs created in January; unemployment at a 53-year low of 3.4 per cent; black unemployment at a historic low of 5.6 per cent. Also, inflation is receding and interest rates are within sight of their summit.
Biden the bipartisan champion will make a pitch to solve the immigration crisis at the southern border.
He will then turn to the world. With the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, and decisive battles ahead, Biden will underscore Ukraine’s heroism, the need for Russia to be stopped and driven out of land it has seized, and the extraordinary unity that NATO has executed under his leadership.
Australians will be watching Biden’s China remarks to see – in addition to what Biden says on ties with Japan and South Korea – if AUKUS and the “unbreakable” alliance with Australia are cited as critical to the strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific.
Biden will discuss China. His Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been scheduled to travel there this week to meet with President Xi. But China’s spy balloon torpedoed that. When the Soviets shot down a US spy plane in 1960 – capturing the U2’s pilot Francis Gary Powers – the Cold War went into a deeper freeze, leading to the Cuban missile crisis. Congress is rife with bipartisan hostility towards China. Even before the balloon was shot down, Republican and Democratic leaders on a new House committee on China were blunt: the threat posed by China, they said, “is not confined to distant shores — it is here at home, and we must act to counter this threat”.
Australians will be watching Biden’s China remarks to see – in addition to what Biden says on ties with Japan and South Korea – if AUKUS and the “unbreakable” alliance with Australia are cited as critical to the strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific.
Biden wanted to address the American people and the world as a successful president – not as a president seeking re-election. That will come soon.
Biden has no problem with being underestimated. In 2024, the election will turn on the economy and how strong it is, and the world and how safe we are.
The Democrat veteran will remember 1982 when Ronald Reagan, at this very moment in his presidency, had an approval rating lower than his. The economy, ravaged by inflation, was in recession. But it came roaring back the next year. It was “morning in America” again, and Reagan romped to re-election.
Biden can see to that horizon. That is why he will say, “My fellow Americans, the state of our union is strong!”