Trump’s VP shortlist: What Australians should know

Then-vice president Joe Biden once said “it’s easy being vice president, you don’t have to do anything.” Others who have held the office have spoken of it in similar terms. Yet, in recent decades, the vice president has come to take an influential role on certain policy issues, and particularly on foreign policy.

Typically, a vice president can serve as an advisor and confidant to the president, and be charged with overseeing particular issues, as Kamala Harris initially was for the Biden administration’s immigration response. Prior to her, George W Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney, led much of the administration’s efforts related to the War on Terror; then-Vice President Joe Biden led critical Obama administration’s foreign policy initiatives ranging from Latin America to Iraq; and Vice President Mike Pence made trips reassuring US allies and partners overseas and delivered speeches during the Trump administration that gave strategic clarity to the administration’s actions.

With former president Donald Trump now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for a third consecutive election, numerous Republicans are angling to be his running mate in November’s general election. The contenders’ differing backgrounds, records and policy positions hold clues as to what their time in office could look like — and the implications for Australia and the Indo-Pacific. Below is a selection of the possible candidates Trump may choose, along with summaries of their views on key domestic and foreign policy topics, and what Australians should know about them if they were to become the next US vice president.

This piece will continue to be updated with new developments and potential candidates. Last updated 10 July 2024.

Top contenders

JD Vance

Known for: Senator from Ohio (2023–)

Home state: Ohio

Age in 2024: 40 (born 2 August 1984)

Vance and Trump speak at a Save America Rally to support Republican candidates running for Ohio state and federal offices on 17 September 2022 in Youngstown, Ohio.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Ohio’s newest senator attracted national attention in 2016 for his bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy which described his Rust Belt upbringing. The former marine and venture capitalist was backed by both Trump and tech billionaire Peter Thiel in his 2022 Senate campaign. Despite closely aligning himself with Trump since his Senate run, Vance was not always a Trump ally, and publicly and vociferously criticised him during the 2016 presidential campaign. Unlike a number of the other vice presidential contenders, Vance has spoken widely on foreign policy, including on Indo-Pacific security.

VP CV

Vance built his career on his 2016 memoir, which became a sensation and saw him labelled a “spokesman for a disaffected group — America’s working-class whites.” Despite his previous criticisms of Trump, Vance has come to strongly defend the former president on a host of issues and become a leading conservative voice. His youth would also likely play in Trump’s favour, given concerns about Trump’s age. Vance has relatively little experience in governing and Ohio is no longer the swing state it once was, but his perceived ability to speak to the conservative base may make him an attractive choice for Trump.

“Look, I was elected to be a senator for the people of Ohio... But I’m going to help Trump however I can.”

10 December 2023, CNN

Relationship with Trump

Vance once proclaimed himself a “Never Trump guy” and was a strong critic of him during the 2016 election, writing that “Trump’s actual policy proposals, such as they are, range from immoral to absurd.” In a series of unearthed deleted tweets, Vance described Trump as “reprehensible,” “noxious” and “an idiot” and wrote in a tweet that he would not vote for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. However, Vance later apologised for his comments when he sought Ohio’s Senate seat. Vance picked up an endorsement from Trump, who said that Vance "may have said some not-so-great things about me in the past, but he gets it now.” Vance has since endorsed Trump in the 2024 race, said that he would not have certified the 2020 election results and pledged to “fight for the America First Agenda in the Senate.”

What should Australians know?

Vance’s foreign policy stance is labelled by some to be that of a “Asia firster” in that it rests on shifting US focus away from Europe and towards addressing the threat of China. He has argued for US foreign policy to prioritise US national interest rather than values, and has indicated support for the AUKUS agreement. Vance has denounced continued support for Ukraine, but is strongly in favour of aid to Taiwan and Israel.

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Vance has repeatedly emphasised the need to prioritise Asia in US foreign policy because China is “our most important geopolitical foe.” He has said that he is “a fan of AUKUS” and that in Asia “we have to try to promote those with aligned interests and encourage those who are a little bit more on the fence to think about things from our perspective.”
• Isolationism | Vance has lauded Trump’s presidency as “the first real disruption to a failed consensus” in US foreign policy. Vance’s 2024 endorsement of Trump praised his “successful foreign policy” as the “most important part” of Trump’s legacy, specifically because he “started no wars,” and pushed for the United States to “take more responsibility for its own defense.” He has argued for US foreign policy to be “based on our national interest” and to “get progressive politics out of our foreign policy.”
• China | Vance describes his strategic position on China as a “straightforwardly economically nationalist argument, [and] even though it may cost a couple basis points of GDP, we should be making more of our stuff.” In the Senate, he co-sponsored the China Trade Relations Act, which would revoke China’s permanent most-favoured-nation status, due to his support for American manufacturing. Vance has tied focus on China to a need to disengage from Ukraine, saying the United States must "stop the focus on Ukraine, we’ve got to focus on China because that’s where the real enemy is.”
• Taiwan | Vance has said that an invasion of Taiwan is “the thing that we need to prevent more than anything" because it “would decimate our entire economy” due to Taiwan’s dominance of the semiconductor industry. He commended the Biden administration’s CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which seeks to bolster US domestic semiconductor manufacturing, calling it “a great piece of legislation.” However, Vance has also criticised Biden for “not sending weapons to Taiwan... because we’re sending those weapons to Ukraine or elsewhere.”
• Ukraine | Vance has said that the war in Ukraine is unsustainable and that he is “sick of Joe Biden focusing on the border of a country I don't care about while he lets the border of his own country become a total war zone." He has promoted an isolationist approach to Europe, saying that “the United States has provided a blanket of security to Europe for far too long.” However, Vance has also said that “the point is not we want to abandon Europe. The point is we need to focus as a country on East Asia, and we need our European allies to step up in Europe.”
• Israel | Vance supports military aid to Israel because, unlike Ukraine, Israel has an “achievable objective” and he believes that the United States must “offer support to one of our most important allies as they face an existential threat.” Vance visited Tel Aviv during his 2022 Senate campaign and said that he would "be as strong an advocate for the US-Israel relationship as anyone,” though he has also suggested that “Americans have to be a little bit more humble about what we can accomplish in the Middle East.”

Domestic policy

• Institutions | Echoing Trump’s policies on the federal bureaucracy, Vance has argued that the president should have the authority to fire bureaucrats and ignore “illegitimate” US Supreme Court rulings. In a 2021 podcast, he said that he would advise Trump to “fire every single mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people.”
• Abortion | Vance called the overturning of the Roe v Wade decision a “great day” that “vindicates a half century of work.” He believes abortion is “primarily a state issue” but also thinks that “it’s fine to sort of set some minimum national standard.” Vance has stated that anti-abortion Republicans must “accept [that] people do not want blanket abortion bans” and that exceptions for the life of the mother, rape or incest must be provided. He is also a sponsor of a current bill in the Senate to ban taxpayer-funded abortions.
• Immigration | Vance has defended Trump’s comments on immigration and reportedly said he would push for US$3 billion to “complete portions” of the border wall that Trump began. He introduced the State Border Security Act which would “authorize certain States to erect temporary protective fencing within 25 miles of the southwest border to deter illegal immigration.” Vance has also argued that the United States needs to “declare the Mexican drug cartels a terrorist organisation”— a move which he has said would allow the US military to “go to Mexico, to go on our southern border.”

Read more

• Axios: JD Vance is on Trump’s VP shortlist (19 January 2024)
• New York Times: What is JD Vance’s angle? (25 September 2023)
• Washington Post: The radicalization of JD Vance (4 January 2022)

Marco Rubio

Known for: Senator from Florida (2011–)

Home state: Florida

Age in 2024: 53 (born 28 May 1971)

Rubio speaks during a rally on 6 November 2022 in Miami, Florida.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Florida’s senior senator began his political career in the Florida House of Representatives in 2000, where he served as Majority Leader (2003–06) and House Speaker (2006–08), before being elected to the US Senate in 2010 with support from the Tea Party movement. Once seen as a young rising Republican star in the Senate, Rubio built a national profile during his 2016 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, which he lost to Donald Trump after a bruising campaign. He is now serving his third term in the US Senate after his re-election in 2022, where he is a prominent Republican voice on foreign policy, particularly in regards to Latin America.

VP CV

Rubio remains a relatively young politician with broader demographic appeal than Trump, particularly as a Cuban American. Rubio has maintained a strong foreign policy focus during his Senate tenure, including serving as the Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence, a member of the Committee on Foreign Relations, and a member of the ‘Gang of Eight’ Congresspeople who are briefed on classified intelligence matters by the executive branch. Rubio was also a key player behind the Trump administration’s Latin America policies, earning him the nickname “Secretary of State for Latin America.” Rubio’s experience in national and presidential politics plays in his favour, but his rocky history with Trump, particularly during the 2016 Republican primaries, could make him a harder sell for the Republican nominee.

Relationship with Trump

Rubio ran directly against Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries in a campaign rife with personal insults. During the campaign, Rubio labelled Trump a “con artist”, “wholly unprepared to be president” and “the most vulgar person to ever aspire to the presidency,” while Trump labelled Rubio “Little Marco”. Ultimately, Rubio offered Trump a begrudging endorsement. The two men appeared to overcome their past tensions over the course of Trump’s presidency, as evidenced by Rubio’s endorsement and support for Trump in the 2020 election. In 2021, Rubio condemned the January 6 Capitol attack as “the disgraceful work of a treasonous criminal mob” and did not join other Republican senators who voted to object to the Electoral College results but said impeaching Trump would be “counterproductive” and voted to acquit Trump in his second impeachment trial. Rubio endorsed Trump’s 2024 candidacy and has since emerged as a top finalist to be Trump’s running mate.

What should Australians know?

Rubio has repeatedly expressed support for the Australia-US alliance and in 2016 pushed for Australia to take a larger role in US counterpressure on China.In 2017, he praised the US alliance with Australia, saying “Australia has often sent their young men and women to die in conflicts that impacted America’s security more than its own” and that the alliance was “among the best in the world, and the economic ties between our two countries support hundreds of thousands of American jobs.” In 2022, Rubio pointed to Chinese influence in the Pacific Islands as a reason why “it will be more important than ever for the United States to work closely with Australia.” As part of a potential Trump administration, Rubio’s views on Australia could prove influential given his seniority and foreign policy focus.

"Anybody who would be offered the chance to serve their country as vice president should consider that to be an honor."

21 March 2024, NBC News interview

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Rubio has consistently emphasised the importance of “empower[ing] our allies and partners” when it comes to balancing China’s influence in Asia, saying in 2022 that “in the coming months and years, our alliances and partnerships with Taiwan, Japan, Korea, India, and others will be more crucial than ever.” He praised joint defence initiatives between the United States, Philippines and Australia and noted in 2023 that US Indo-Pacific allies “want to be helpful and have capacity.” In May 2023, Rubio introduced the Deterring Chinese Preemptive Strikes Act which directed the US Department of Defense to strengthen US facilities and bases in Asia. In April 2024, he said that “Japan’s role as a key ally in matters of security, intelligence, and economic affairs cannot be overstated” and that “a trilateral alliance between the US, Japan and Korea would be a crucial foundation that furthers our joint efforts in the Indo-Pacific.”
• China | During his 2016 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, Rubio advocated for increased defence spending, sending US military vessels through contested waters and airspace, and demonstrating to Beijing that cyber hacking “comes with a cost.” Throughout his second and third terms in Congress, Rubio has continued to be recognised as one of the Senate’s most high-profile China hawks. In 2020, he said the Biden administration’s cabinet would be “polite and orderly caretakers of America’s decline” and a return to “the ‘normal’ that left us dependent on China.” In 2022, Rubio described China as “the most formidable near-peer adversary our nation has ever faced.” He regularly criticises China’s permanent most-favoured-nation status and admission to the World Trade Organization for “the destruction” of the US manufacturing industry, describes the app TikTok as a tool of Beijing’s “malign influence” and supports tariff increases on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Over the last five years, Rubio has introduced and sponsored bills that impose import bans on goods produced using Uyghur forced labour, prevent Chinese-made equipment from entering US telecommunications networks, support human rights and democracy in Hong Kong, and restrict visas for all Chinese Communist Party members.
• Taiwan | In April 2024, Rubio introduced a resolution that reaffirms US commitment to Taiwan on the 45th anniversary of the enactment of the landmark Taiwan Relations Act, calling for bilateral relations to “remain strong as Taiwan confronts constant threats from Communist China.” Rubio contends that there is “no way we can finish this decade without China trying to do something about Taiwan.” He views a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan as a major threat to US power and influence, noting that if China were to take control of Taiwan “that gives them [China] effective control over all of East Asia. That’s 70 per cent of global commerce. They could literally just shut us down.” Rubio supports demonstrating continued US support for Taiwan. In 2021, he called for a strong US presence in Taiwan’s territorial waters so that Beijing “know[s] we're serious about our commitment and we have the ability to put assets there,” and in May 2022 he signed a bipartisan letter calling for Taiwan’s inclusion in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
• Trade | While once a strong proponent of free trade in his early political career, Rubio has become increasingly protectionist in recent years. As early as 2011, he took to the Senate floor to highlight the importance of free trade agreements, and expressed his support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership during its negotiations in 2015, stating that “the United States cannot get locked out of 95 percent of all the world’s consumers” and the trade deal would advance US “strategic goals in Asia and increase prosperity at home.” However, in 2016 he later said that while he supports the TPP “in concept,” it “has to be the right deal,” and went on, in 2018, to decry what he described as the “cult-like faith in financial markets.” More recently, Rubio has positioned himself as a leading proponent of US industrial policy, claiming that it has the potential to “rebuild our manufacturing sector,” but that it must focus on “domestic industrial base and the working class.” He has criticised the Republican party for a “temptation... to respond [to China’s industrial advantages] by reverting to the old consensus” and for having “outsourced such decisions to ‘the free market’.” However, he has claimed that the Biden administration has “done industrial policy wrong,” criticising the signature CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act because he believes they benefit China and erroneously prioritise “fantasies such as the ‘green transition’.”
• Ukraine | Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Rubio has argued that providing the public with more detailed information is important to rally US support for Ukraine, stating that Americans “want to understand what our role in all of this is — why America should care, why it matters, what’s happening.” However, Rubio has also been vocal about the need for US allies to shoulder more of the burden of the war effort, so that the United States “can direct its resources to effectively counter Beijing in the years to come.” He was a vocal opponent of the US$95 billion foreign aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, that President Biden signed into law in April 2024, which included US$61 billion in assistance to Ukraine, due to his position against “spend[ing] billions of taxpayer dollars all over the world to resettle people here and in other places in the midst of our own migratory crisis.”
• Israel | Rubio has long been supportive of close US ties to Israel, in 2018 describing Israel as the United States’ “strongest ally in the region.” Since the October 2023 attacks in Israel, he has stated that “you're either with Israel or you're with the terrorists” and argued that “the US must remain consistent and firm in its support of Israel.” In April 2024, Rubio made an official visit to Israel, in which he met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “expressed his strong support for Israel in the midst of increasing threats.”
• Climate change | While Rubio has at times minimised the impacts of climate change, in recent years he has acknowledged climate impacts as “measurable facts,” while arguing against the Biden administration’s approach and emphasising the need to “find real and responsible solutions in a bipartisan way.” In 2014, Rubio stated that he did “not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it” and at the 2016 Republican debate, he reiterated that “the climate has always been changing.” Rubio expressed his opposition to President Obama joining the Paris Climate Agreement in September 2016, in the belief that it was “more about appeasing extreme activists and preserving his liberal legacy” and would hurt the US economy and “take away the jobs of hundreds of thousands of hardworking Americans.” However, in 2019, Rubio wrote that “Earth’s climate is changing” and Florida will be forced to make “adjustments,” and went on to join the bipartisan Senate Climate Solutions Caucus in 2020. He has criticised President Biden for “actively trying to ‘end fossil fuels’” and “forcibly transitioning to renewables” which he believes would “exacerbate unique threat that the ‘clean’ energy industry poses.” Rubio voted against the Biden administration's signature Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 that devoted “some $50 billion to help states better prepare for [climate] events,” claiming that the spending was “wasteful” and inflationary.

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Rubio believes that abortion is “the killing of an unborn human being” and during the 2016 presidential primaries said he opposed abortion even in cases of rape or incest, a position he also expressed during his 2010 Senate campaign. In 2022, he stated that he “will support any bill that saves lives now,” but that while he supports a federal abortion ban, the issue is best decided at the state level. Rubio has repeatedly characterised the issue of abortion as a conflict between “a woman’s right to choose and an unborn human being’s right to live” and in May 2024 stated that he “err[s] on the side of life.” He described the overturning of Roe v Wade as a “victory for the unborn and mothers in America,” but stated that “our work is not done” and “Washington can and must do more for mothers, babies and young children.” This includes proposals laid out in his Providing for Life Act bill that he unveiled after the 2022 Dobbs ruling, which advocates expanding the child tax credit and making the adoption tax credit fully refundable.
• Immigration | Rubio’s positions on immigration have shifted throughout his career. During his time in state government from 2000 to 2010, he co-sponsored bills to provide college tuition breaks for undocumented immigrants. Additionally, several bills intended to impose stricter measures on undocumented immigrants failed to advance under his leadership as Speaker of the Florida House. As a US senator in 2013, Rubio worked to develop immigration reform that would have offered a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and which he described as “fair and compassionate but does not encourage people to come illegally in the future.” However, the 2013 bill was poorly received among conservatives, leading Rubio to distance himself from his prior positions in the following years — most notably in his 2016 presidential primary campaign. He has since come to emphasise the importance of border security and in 2022 derided the Biden administration for an “open border” that allows “deadly drugs” and “illegal immigrants” to enter the United States. In 2024, along with his Republican Senate colleagues, Rubio opposed the Biden administration’s aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan due to what he said was Biden’s inaction on the southern border.

Read more:

• The Washington Post: How Marco Rubio went from rival to one of Donald Trump’s VP finalists (19 June 2024)
• Politico: How Marco Rubio runs Trump’s Latin America policy (8 March 2020)
• Council on Foreign Relations: Marco Rubio’s foreign policy vision (13 May 2015)

Doug Burgum

Known for: 2024 presidential campaign, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)

Home state: North Dakota

Age in 2024: 68 (born 1 August 1956)

Doug Burgum encourages voters to support Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump during a campagin rally on 22 January 2024 in New Hampshire.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Doug Burgum scored an upset win to secure the North Dakota governorship in 2016, but failed to make the same impression during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. He suspended his campaign in December 2023 before the first primary votes were cast, after he failed to qualify for the third Republican primary debate. During his campaign, the North Dakota governor and former tech firm executive emphasised his entrepreneurial background, while steering clear of directly criticising Trump and instead calling for the country to “move on” and focus on the “economy, energy, and national security.”

VP CV

Burgum was not initially seen as a leading option for Trump’s vice presidential pick, and during the Republican primaries explicitly said he would not serve as Trump’s running mate. Nevertheless, he has since emerged as a top contender in recent months after he became the first of Trump’s 2024 primary rivals to endorse the former president. Burgum has shadowed Trump on the campaign trail, acting as a surrogate for media appearances and appearing with other vice presidential hopefuls Vivek Ramaswamy and Byron Donalds at the Manhattan courthouse where Trump’s hush money trial was held. Burgum has stated that he will not seek re-election as governor this year, signalling his availability for a White House position if Trump wins.

“If I'm on [Trump's vice presidential shortlist], who would know? But it's not why I'm out supporting the president right now.”

5 May 2024, CNN interview

Relationship with Trump

Burgum endorsed Trump’s first run for president in May 2016, but stated conclusively “I believe that Joe Biden won the [2020] election” in August 2023. He has defended Trump in recent months and denounced Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial as “election interference.” However, Burgum previously said he would not go into business with Trump, described the January 6 riots as “reprehensible” (though without mentioning Trump by name) and at one stage decried ‘mask shaming’ during the pandemic. Trump praised Burgum after he endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential run, calling Burgum “one of the best governors in our country” and saying “I hope I’m going to be able to call on him to be a piece of the administration, a very important piece of the administration.”

What should Australians know?

Burgum has used his business credentials and status as a relative political newcomer to publicly and privately draw parallels between himself and Trump. He focused his own presidential campaign on energy independence, trade, and economic competition with China while giving less attention to foreign policy issues than some of his GOP primary competitors. His views on policy debates — including support for free trade, abortion restrictions, tax decreases, and strong military spending — broadly reflect more conventional Republican views. Beyond policy, Burgum is widely perceived to be a possible VP who could support — though not overshadow — Trump’s campaign and presidency.

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | In October 2023, Burgum said that the United States needs “strong partnerships and strong allies” to successfully compete with China. At the same event, he singled out India as one of the “most important partners” of the United States and said that “the closer the US-India relationship becomes, the better for [US] national security.” As governor, he supported the work of US allies on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), though did not publicly criticise Trump’s 2017 withdrawal from the TPP. Burgum praised the Trump administration’s US-Japan Trade Agreement after attending its signing in 2019 and, in October 2022, Burgum led a North Dakota trade delegation to Japan, describing Japan as a “key strategic ally for our nation.”
• China | During his 2023 Republican primary campaign, Burgum described China as a “common enemy” of the United States and characterised the two countries as being in a “cold war.” He outlined a three-step approach to US competition with China: “energy dominance,” “unleash the American economy” and “defeat our adversaries.” As a presidential candidate, Burgum called for NATO to recognise China as a threat to “all Western democracies” and supported an increase of US defence spending to at least 5 per cent of GDP in line with what he described as the “Reagan standard” — referencing when the Reagan administration increased US defence spending to 6 per cent of GDP during the Cold War. Burgum has criticised President Biden’s approach to China, describing it as a “disastrous policy of appeasement.” When asked about his approach to US-China economic competition as a Republican primary candidate in June 2023, Burgum argued that China needs to become “dependent” on the United States by increasing US exports to China, inspired by US allies in the Pacific like Australia which have trade surpluses with China.
• Taiwan | Burgum believes that deterrence requires “an intense focus on economic statecraft as well as military deterrence in a manner we don’t see today from this [Biden] administration.” During the first Republican primary debate in August 2023, he stated that the United States needs to provide Taiwan with anti-ship missiles to achieve “peace through strength.” He has previously said the United States should do “two things at once,” by supporting Ukraine while simultaneously reinforcing Taiwan’s defence and deterring Chinese aggression. As governor in 2018, Burgum praised the “sister-state relationship” between Taiwan and North Dakota, pointing to strong economic links and shared values that underpin bilateral ties.
• Trade | In October 2023, Burgum stated that the United States needs a trade policy that encourages countries to “unhook from China’s supply chain and hook onto an American supply chain instead.” He previously expressed concern in 2018 over the economic impact of China’s imposition of trade tariffs, saying that “disrupting that trade relationship puts our farmers at a disadvantage,” and calling for the Trump administration to negotiate a deal that would block China’s tariffs. He has demonstrated support for free trade agreements, in 2020 praising the signing of the Trump administration’s Phase One Trade Agreement for greater trade with China and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and previously commending Australia and Japan for their efforts to keep the Trans-Pacific Partnership alive after the US withdrawal under Trump in 2017.
• Ukraine | Burgum has emphasised the need for the United States and its allies to “stand together” in support of Ukraine, highlighting the “significant” obligations the United States has to its allies in western Europe. However, he has also called for stronger accountability and transparency in US spending, arguing that US support for Ukraine cannot take the form of a “blank check.” Burgum has used the crisis as an opportunity to reiterate the importance of US energy security, noting North Dakota’s efforts to divest from its investments with Russian exposure and calling for the Biden administration to bolster domestic energy production to reduce global reliance on Russian oil and gas exports. He has drawn links between the war in Ukraine and US competition with China, stating that a Russian victory would also constitute “a win for China.” Burgum has also suggested that US sanctions on Russian oil currently enable China to access energy at a cheaper price, and has called for a more coherent US “global strategy” to promote deterrence by linking energy and national security.
• Israel | Burgum has blamed “the policies of the Biden administration” for the outbreak of global conflicts, including in Israel. He has described Israel’s war with Hamas as an Iranian “war on America” and claimed that Biden is “funding both sides” of the conflict by using Qatar for backchannel negotiations. He condemned Biden for threatening to withhold arms shipments to Israel, saying it would damage US credibility with other allies and represented “negotiating for the terrorists.” Burgum has also said the United States should “consider” sending military forces to Israel because “when people are killing Americans, they need to know that there’s gonna be consequence,” though he has not spoken further on the goals of such hypothetical US military engagement.
• Climate change | In 2021, at the start of his second term as governor, Burgum announced his goal for North Dakota to become carbon neutral by 2030. Emphasising “innovation, not regulation,” Burgum pledged to reduce the state’s carbon footprint through carbon capture and storage, but is yet to release any public data on the success of these efforts, and has since pushed for large increases to oil production. Burgum has argued that policies targeting the fossil fuel industry are “binary” and “outdated,” because they hamper the US competition with China, by strengthening US "adversaries" and creating “economic poverty.” Burgum has called for the United States to bolster its domestic energy supply so that it can sell energy to allies and “stop buying it from our enemies.” He has characterised North Dakota as a “leader in domestic energy,” and believes that his vision for reducing emissions while retaining its domestic industry provides a model that could be implemented on a national scale.

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Burgum lauded the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022 for returning “powers to the states where it belongs” and described the decision as a “victory for the many North Dakotans who have fought so hard and for so long to protect the unborn in our state.” Burgum has described North Dakota as a “pro-life state” and in April 2023, as governor, he signed into law one of the country’s strictest anti-abortion bans, with limited exceptions for rape, incest and threat to the life of the mother up to six weeks’ gestation. However, Burgum has stated that he would not support a strict nationwide abortion ban, in the belief that “what’s right for North Dakota may not be right for another state.”
• Immigration | In September 2023, Burum co-signed a joint letter with other Republican governors which criticised Biden’s handling of immigration and called on the White House to “relay immediately accurate, detailed, thorough data and information to the states about who is crossing the southern border illegally, where they are relocating, how the federal government is processing their asylum applications, and whether they are being deported successfully.” Burgum deployed the North Dakota National Guard to the US-Mexico border in November 2023, and has praised the missions as helping to “protect our country, state and communities and save lives from illegal activity including drug and human trafficking.”
• Domestic battles | Burgum opposes student loan debt forgiveness, saying it shifts debt “onto the backs of their fellow citizens.” As governor, he signed into law a ban on teaching critical race theory in 2021 and a ban on transgender athletes in women’s sports in 2023, though he vetoed a bill that would have placed restrictions on personal pronouns in schools on the grounds that it constituted government overreach. Burgum has supported various measures to expand gun access in the state and, in 2021, signed a proclamation that labelled North Dakota a ‘Second Amendment Sanctuary State,’ in which he pledged to “stand against federal overreach and attempts to limit rights to own and use guns.” Burgum has stated that ‘culture war’ issues — such as abortion and transgender bills — are best decided at the state, rather than federal, level, in his belief that these policy topics are “not the place where the president should be spending their time.”

Read more

• The Washington Post: Doug Burgum’s primary run was short-lived. Now he’s everywhere with Trump (18 May 2024)
• Politico: Doug Burgum emerges as an unlikely candidate to be Trump VP (9 May 2024)
• Council on Foreign Relations: Meet Doug Burgum, Republican Presidential Candidate (22 June 2023)

Tim Scott

Known for: 2024 presidential campaign, Senator from South Carolina (2013–)

Home state: South Carolina

Age in 2024: 59 (born 19 September 1965)

Scott speaks during a campaign rally for Trump on 19 January 2024 in Concord, New Hampshire.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Scott is the sole Black Republican in the US Senate and ran in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries but suspended his campaign in November 2023 after failing to gain significant traction. A successful 2010 Tea Party candidate for Congress, Scott was appointed in 2012 to fill a Senate vacancy by then-South Carolina governor, and later presidential rival, Nikki Haley. Scott brought a notably optimistic tone to his presidential campaign and cited his journey “from cotton to Congress in one lifetime” as proof that America is “not a racist country” and is “not a land of oppression.” As recently as 2023, he indicated support for free trade negotiations in the Indo-Pacific and a stronger US military presence in the region.

VP CV

As one of few nationally recognisable Black Republicans, Scott could help Trump gain support from Black voters — a key demographic that Trump’s campaign has targeted and which Trump overwhelmingly lost in 2020. Scott’s more conventional Republican views would also go some way to helping Trump tap into support from more moderate voters in the general election. Unlike some of his GOP rivals, Scott refrained from attacking the former president directly during his campaign and became effusive in his praise of Trump since suspending his campaign, notably declaring, “I just love you!” during a joint appearance.

“The one thing I can’t afford to do is take my eye off the ball. The eye on the ball means making sure that President Trump gets four more years.”

5 February 2024, Fox News interview

Relationship with Trump

As a Senator during the Trump administration, Scott voted with Trump’s position 97 per cent of the time. Scott voted to acquit Trump in both impeachment trials in 2020 and 2021, though following Trump’s comments on the 2017 Charleston riots, said that Trump’s “moral authority is compromised.” Scott voted to certify the 2020 election in the Senate on 6 January 2021, which has reportedly been a source of contention within Trump’s circles in discussions surrounding his future running mate. Trump nevertheless endorsed Scott for his successful 2022 Senate re-election campaign, and Scott endorsed Trump for the 2024 presidential election despite being a former ally of Nikki Haley. Scott has downplayed Trump’s legal concerns, labelling them as politically motivated and irrelevant to his electoral viability, saying that they have “only exposed the two-tiered justice system that many Americans fear.”

What should Australians know?

Scott has described strengthening the Australia-US alliance as “critical” to fostering a free and open Indo-Pacific. As a member of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations since January 2023, Scott has voted on US foreign policy issues, including supporting legislation that facilitated the AUKUS agreement, and called for greater US military engagement in the Indo-Pacific. In contrast to Trump, he has expressed supported for free trade agreements as a means of securing US regional influence, voting in 2015 in favour of granting trade promotion authority to fast-track negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, Scott’s stated position on tariffs has shifted in a more protectionist direction as he has sought to align himself more closely with Trump.

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Scott described strengthening the Australia-US alliance as “critical as we face shared challenges and strive to foster an open and secure Indo-Pacific, free from CCP aggression.” He sits on the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and was part of a crucial bipartisan committee vote in July 2023 to effectively fast-track the transfer of US military hardware to Australia for the AUKUS agreement. He criticised the current US military footprint in the Indo-Pacific as insufficient and has called for the United States to build a “stronger presence” in the region. Scott has also emphasised the importance of demonstrating that the United States is loyal to its allies and partners, specifically singling out Japan and Taiwan, and has publicly connected with Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd. He once described Japan as “a key ally for the US” and highlighted deepened US-Japan cooperation as critical to the pursuit of a “free, open, and secure Asia-Pacific.”
• China | Scott has described China as “the most dangerous and existential threat to American prosperity and security.” He has criticised Beijing’s trade practices, which he believes stifle US innovation and has pushed for decoupling the US economy from China’s to the “fullest extent” possible and unleashing US private sector innovation to “finish” what he describes as the “new economic Cold War.” While Scott introduced legislation that would “stick [a] ‘Made In China’ Label on TikTok” by notifying a user when an app is Chinese-owned, he has hesitated in calling for an outright ban of the app in the United States. In August 2023, Scott led a group of Republican senators in authoring a letter urging the US Department of Education Secretary to investigate alleged Chinese influence in the US school system. He also jointly introduced legislation in September 2023 to increase oversight of US science and technology agreements with China and criticised the potential for US-China civilian scientific collaboration to have military applications.
• Taiwan | Scott has emphasised the need for the United States to “stand shoulder to shoulder with the Taiwanese government” and continue to provide resources to the Taiwanese military, arguing that delivery on US commitments to Taiwan requires an “industrial revolution” in US military resources and equipment production. In July 2023, he praised the Senate’s approval of a bill to strengthen the US trade relationship with Taiwan, affirming Taiwan’s role as a “reliable partner” in promoting freedom and democracy across the Indo-Pacific.
• Trade | In contrast to Trump, as recently as 2023 Scott called for stronger US leadership on trade and a return to free market principles, including a renewed commitment to “free enterprise” and “free trade.” He previously voted in favour of granting trade promotion authority to fast-track the Obama administration’s negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2015 and has since cautioned against allowing other countries to have “the prime position to dictate Japan and the Asian market.” Scott has emphasised the importance of the United States “leading the conversation on new trade agreements” that bolster US access to global markets, and in 2021 signed a letter calling for the Biden administration to initiate digital trade negotiations with US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. While he has described himself as a “free trader” and previously criticised Trump-era tariffs on China, he has since described them as “prudent.”
• Ukraine | Scott suggested that Biden’s “weakness on the world stage” emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022, though he supported the provision of military aid to Ukraine under the belief that it is in the US “vital national interest.” In Scott’s view, “degrading the Russian military” serves two key purposes: preventing “attacks on the homeland” while reducing Russia’s capabilities to launch an attack on NATO territory that would draw in the United States.
• Climate change | While Scott acknowledges that climate change is occurring, he has a record of voting against policies aimed at curbing carbon emissions. He joined calls for Trump to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 and most recently voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, a Biden administration bill seeking to funnel billions into clean energy technologies, arguing that spending under the bill would instead accelerate inflation.

Domestic policy

• Domestic battles | Scott described the overturning of Roe v Wade as “an important step to protect the God-given right to life.” During his presidential campaign, Scott said as president that he would sign the “most conservative, pro-life legislation” possible and would “certainly" enact a 20-week federal ban, though he has generally tried to avoid discussing specifics of his abortion policy. In 2022 and 2023, he co-sponsored the Parental Rights Over the Education and Care of Their Kids (PROTECT Kids) Act, which sought to restrict federal funding to schools that allow “students to change their pronouns, gender markers, or sex-based accommodations, including locker rooms and bathrooms, without the consent of their parents.”
• Immigration | Scott has called the current border situation “the greatest invasion in American history” and said that Biden needs to “restore the Remain in Mexico policy.” He has emphasised the need to “finish the wall” and “double the number of agents down there,” and called for reallocating money in the Inflation Reduction Act that is currently meant to bolster the Internal Revenue Service’s workforce, to hiring additional Customs and Border Patrol Agents.

Read more

• Business Insider: Meet Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator and former GOP candidate who could become Trump’s pick for vice president (5 March 2024)
• AP News: Tim Scott lost his own presidential bid. But he’s gotten Donald Trump’s attention for vice president (4 March 2024)
• Time: Why Trump allies don’t want Tim Scott as a running mate (30 January 2024)
• Politico: 55 things you need to know about Tim Scott (22 June 2023)

Elise Stefanik

Known for: US House Representative for New York’s 21st Congressional district (2015–), Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–)

Home state: New York

Age in 2024: 40 (born 2 July 1984)

Stefanik speaks during a campaign rally for Trump on 19 January 2024 in Concord, New Hampshire.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Widely seen as one of the Republican party’s rising stars, Stefanik was the then-youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014, at age 30. While she was once a party moderate, serving as a Bush-era Domestic Policy Council staffer and working on Paul Ryan’s 2012 presidential campaign, Stefanik has since become one of Trump’s most vocal supporters. She joined efforts to dispute the result of the 2020 election and replaced ousted Trump critic Liz Cheney as Chair of the House Republican Conference in 2021. Most recently, Stefanik gained national attention for her combative questioning of university presidents in December 2023 antisemitism hearings.

VP CV

Her now-unfettered support for the former president and claims that she would not have certified the 2020 election make her an attractive choice if Trump wishes to recruit a loyalist. Stefanik’s youth would also be an electoral asset. Her experience with presidential campaigns, helping to write the Republican National Committee 2012 platform and assisting with Paul Ryan’s 2012 debate preparations, could also be a selling point. Trump labelled her a “killer” in a purported January 2024 meeting to discuss vice presidential options, while Stefanik has signalled her willingness to serve as his running mate.

“I would be honoured to serve in any capacity in a Trump administration. I’m proud to be the first member of Congress to endorse his reelection.”

8 January 2024, NBC Meet the Press

Relationship with Trump

Stefanik was not a strong initial supporter of Trump, offering only tepid support in 2016, criticising Trump’s offensive comments about women, and voting against his signature domestic tax cuts in 2017. However, she has since converted into a strident supporter of the former president after she “really paid attention to the voters and the people in my district” who supported Trump. In 2020, she was rated the 13th most bipartisan member of Congress — but had fallen to rank 100 by 2021. In May 2021, Stefanik called Trump the "strongest supporter of any president when it comes to standing up for the Constitution" and described herself in 2022 as “ultra-MAGA. And I’m proud of it.”

What should Australians know?

Stefanik sat on the exclusively Republican House China Task Force and has led delegations to Indo-Pacific allies and partners and advocated for strengthening regional partnerships as part of US China strategy. She is a member of the House Taiwan caucus and co-sponsored legislation that would bolster military and diplomatic support for Taiwan and increase the “US strategic clarity” toward a CCP invasion. However, her notable shifts in policy positions throughout her career could mean her views continue to change as a vice presidential nominee to more closely align with Trump.

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Stefanik stated in 2023 that “Communist China continues to encroach on our Indo-Pacific allies and we must continue to strengthen key alliances and partnerships in the region.” Back in 2020, she pointed to Australia’s China policy as a guide for the United States and said that the United States needs to “really work with those strong relationships to ensure that we have a strategy.” In 2017, she took a House Intelligence Committee trip to Japan and South Korea, describing it as an opportunity “to highlight the importance of working with our allies in the region and to continue to build on our intelligence sharing capabilities.” More recently, in September 2023, Stefanik led a bipartisan Congressional Delegation to Japan, Singapore and Thailand. She has described India as a “critical partner in the region, countering China’s malign influence and supporting a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
• China | Stefanik has stated that she “will never back down [from] standing up and speaking out against the Chinese Communist Party.” In 2022, she described a “rising China and the influence they’re trying to seek across the globe” as “the greatest threat of our generation” and has repeatedly advocated for the Reagan-inspired concept of “peace through strength.” She has introduced legislation aimed at countering “Communist China’s theft of US intellectual property” and targeting Chinese government influence on American campuses, which demands that American institutions cut ties with “threatening partnerships.” She released a September 2020 report as part of the House China Task Force that seeks to provide “a specific actionable response plan” for the United States to address the CCP’s “global malign behaviour.”
• Taiwan | Stefanik sits on the House Taiwan Caucus and signed a bipartisan 2022 letter calling for Taiwan’s inclusion in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. In 2022, she said that China has “continued to assert themselves in the Asia-Pacific region and continued to threaten Taiwan,” and she co-sponsored the Taiwan Policy Act to “strengthen Taiwan’s defense and deter aggression of the CCP” by “modernising” policy through “increasing the US strategic clarity towards a CCP invasion, supporting Taiwan internationally, strengthening bilateral relations, increasing Taiwan’s military capabilities to deter and defeat a CCP attack.
• Ukraine | As a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, Stefanik led a bipartisan congressional delegation to Ukraine in 2018. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion, she said “the US must stand strongly behind Ukraine — a critical security partner in the region.” She has stated that the United States “made a mistake years ago of Ukraine not being admitted to NATO” and said that Ukraine “need[s] to be admitted into NATO.” Since the invasion, however, she has argued that the United States should not provide a “blank check” on aid to Ukraine and that “NATO allies need to step up when it comes to contributing to the effort.”
• Climate | Stefanik was previously an advocate for addressing climate change, saying in 2018 that she would “continue to be a leading voice in Congress on environmental issues” and in 2019 that “I’ve been a leader when it comes to not only the acknowledgment of climate change, but also the focus on science-based solutions.” In 2017, she was one of few Republicans to openly criticise Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. However, she later stated in 2022 that she supports Trump’s withdrawal because “countries like China and India and developing nations... are not held to any standard.” In recent years, she has also placed a particular emphasis on “increasing energy independence” and market-based solutions to climate issues.

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Stefanik earned an endorsement and an A+ rating from the anti-abortion Susan B Anthony List and has said that she is “proud to put an end to the radical, taxpayer-funded, abortion-on-demand until the moment of birth Far Left Democrat agenda.” In 2023, Stefanik described the overturning of Roe v Wade as a restoration of “the correct interpretation of the Constitution.” She is a strong supporter of the Hyde Amendment, which prevents taxpayer dollars from being used to fund abortions, though she said in 2014 that Republicans needed to bring a compassionate approach to the abortion debate.
• Immigration | Stefanik opposed Trump’s “rushed and overly broad" travel ban in 2017, saying his border wall plans were unrealistic, and described the former president’s anti-immigrant comments as “wrong and contrary to our American ideals.” However, she has notably shifted her stance in recent years and now strongly supports the Republican-backed Secure the Border Act which limits asylum rights and has called for the reinstatement of Trump’s border policies. She has campaigned on increased funding for the border wall and claimed in 2021 that Democrats were orchestrating a "permanent election insurrection" by granting amnesty to undocumented immigrants in order to "overthrow our current electorate and create a permanent liberal majority in Washington.”

Read more

• The Atlantic: Elise Stefanik’s Trump audition (25 January 2024)
• New York Times: The invention of Elise Stefanik (4 January 2024)
• Foreign Policy: Elise Stefanik is most likely to succeed (29 September 2022)
• The Guardian: How Elise Stefanik rose from moderate Republican to Maga star (11 July 2022)

Outside chances

Vivek Ramaswamy

Known for: 2024 presidential campaign, founder and CEO of biotechnology company Roivant Sciences (2014–2021)

Home state: Ohio

Age in 2024: 39 (born 9 August 1985)

Trump greets Ramaswamy while speaking during a campaign rally at the Atkinson Country Club on 16 January 2024 in Atkinson, New Hampshire.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Ramaswamy is a biotech entrepreneur who rose to prominence as a long-shot 2024 Republican presidential candidate. His combative presence on the Republican primary debate stages and positioning as an heir to the Make America Great Again movement led to a brief breakout moment in Republican opinion polling in the middle of 2023. Ramaswamy was arguably the most complimentary of Trump on the GOP primary campaign trail and quickly endorsed him after suspending his own presidential run. A self-described ‘anti-woke’ activist, he has written multiple bestsellers denouncing identity politics and socially-conscious investing, and has founded an asset management fund that encourages corporations to place financial profits above environmental, social and governance (ESG) efforts.

VP CV

Ramaswamy’s youth, strong support for the ‘America First’ agenda and swift endorsement of Trump could make him an appealing vice presidential choice for Trump. On the Republican debate stage, Ramaswamy was the first to signal that he would still support Trump if Trump were convicted of a crime. He has positioned himself in lockstep with Trump’s policy agenda — calling for the dismantling of the so-called “deep state,” denouncing climate change as a “hoax” and supporting Trump’s deportation policies on immigration.

“We’re thinking things through... The role I’m going to play, whether it’s inside government or outside government, I’m gonna figure it out.”

25 January 2024, Flagrant interview

Relationship with Trump

In his 2022 book, Ramaswamy wrote of January 6 as a “dark day for democracy” and described Trump as a “sore loser” but has since come to describe January 6 as an “inside job,” the 2020 election as “stolen” and Trump as the “best president of the 21st century.” During his campaign, Ramaswamy emphasised that the ‘America First’ movement is “bigger than Donald Trump” and does not belong to one individual and denied that he was a “disciple” of Trump. Nevertheless, he largely defended the former president’s legacy during the campaign. Despite some sniping between their rival campaigns in January 2024, Ramaswamy immediately endorsed Trump after dropping out of the race, saying, “I think we’re going to do the right thing for this country. And so I’m going to ask you to follow me in taking our America First movement to the next level.” Trump described Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign as a “hell of a job” and has continued to praise him since.

What should Australians know?

Ramaswamy spoke at length about his foreign policy views during his presidential campaign, including not only support for AUKUS, but for sharing nuclear submarine technology with India. He has called for both increased defence commitments from regional US allies, and an increase in US defence spending. He supported classifying Australia as a “domestic source” for US defence production and, on the campaign trail, said he would consider re-joining some form of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). He wants the United States to expand trade relations with regional countries and to explicitly commit to Taiwan’s defence in the event of a Chinese invasion — but would want to revoke this support once the United States has grown its own semiconductor manufacturing industry and gained "semiconductor independence.”

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Ramaswamy has called for increased US trade engagement in the Indo-Pacific, as well as for a Pacific American Treaty Organisation (PATO) that includes Australia, South Korea, Japan, India and other Southeast Asian countries. He has called for an increase in US naval capacity by 20 per cent to “be able to meet our AUKUS agreement standards” and said that Australia, Japan and the Philippines should expand their defence budgets. He has also said that US allies should deepen their investment in regional countries to “offset Chinese economic influence.”
• Defence spending | Ramaswamy has said the AUKUS pact aligns with his “tough love” vision for US engagement with China. He has vowed to establish a new floor of four per cent of GDP on US military expenditures to ensure that Virginia-class submarines are delivered to Australia on schedule. Ramaswamy has also advocated for strengthening US-India relations to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. He supports an “AUKUS-style deal” with India to “share nuclear submarine technology and empower the Indian navy.”
• China | Ramaswamy has called for the United States to “declare economic independence” from China and take immediate steps towards decoupling, including banning US businesses from expanding into China and preventing “CCP affiliates” from buying US land. Ramaswamy has also said that the United States should reduce its supply chain dependencies on China for components of its advanced weaponry, arguing that the United States is currently “suicidally dependent” on its “chief adversary” to meet its defence needs.
• Taiwan | Ramaswamy believes that "strategic ambiguity” about whether the United States will defend Taiwan against invasion creates “mutual confusion” with China that increases the risks of a US-China conflict. He has argued for the United States to make an affirmative commitment to Taiwan’s defence which will expire once the United States has gained “semiconductor independence.” Ramaswamy has explicitly called for Australia to take a “stronger posture” in defence of Taiwan, and consider boosting Australian military assistance, diplomatic visits and trade initiatives with Taiwan in a “porcupine strategy” of multiple defensive measures to deter China. He believes that if the United States and India strengthen their military partnership, India could help the United States block maritime routes crucial for China's oil supplies in the event of a war in Taiwan.
• Trade | Ramaswamy sees trade as a tool to counter China and has argued for the need to enact bilateral trade deals with "trusted allies and hemispheric neighbours.” During his campaign, he promoted a plan for "sensible” decoupling from China involving onshoring critical supply chains to the US, and expanding trade relations with allies like Japan, South Korea and India. He supported the push to designate Australia as a “domestic source” within the meaning of Title III of the US Defense Production Act, and signalled that he would consider re-joining some form of a bolstered Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
• Ukraine | Ramaswamy believes that US support for Ukraine “does not advance American interests” and has voiced strong opposition to Ukraine’s accession to NATO. He would seek to cease further US support for Ukraine and negotiate a peace treaty with Russia that would make “major concessions” in the hope that Russia would reduce its engagement with China and de-escalate nuclear tensions.
• Israel | During the third Republican debate Ramaswamy stated that “Israel has the right and the responsibility to defend itself” and has outlined his support for “robust intelligence support” for Israel and “additional military supplies via both sale and transfer.” However, Ramaswamy has argued that US assistance to Israel must be “contingent" on Israel’s plans in Gaza. He believes that Israel’s current approach lacks “clear objectives,” stating that “‘destroy Hamas’ is not on its own a viable or coherent strategy.”

Domestic policy

• Domestic battles | Ramaswamy staked his entrepreneurial career on being “anti-woke” and “anti-ESG” and characterised his presidential campaign as not just a political campaign “but a cultural movement to create a new American dream.” He has described affirmative action as “a cancer on our soul,” critical race theory as a “secular religion” and the “LGBTQIA+ movement” as “a cult.” Ramaswamy believes that abortion is “murder” but has said the issue should be regulated at the state level because it would create a “quagmire” at the federal level. He has also stated that the government has “no authority to codify Roe v Wade into law.”
• Institutions | Echoing Trump, Ramaswamy has repeatedly said that “we need to shut down the deep state” by targeting “unelected bureaucrats” and “agencies that should no longer exist” — and that he thinks that “Donald Trump is the right man to get this job done.” On the presidential campaign trail, Ramaswamy advocated for severe cuts to the federal government, including proposing a 75 per cent government head-count reduction of the federal workforce.
• Immigration | Similar to Trump’s recent rhetoric on immigration, Ramaswamy has called for “the largest mass deportation in American history,” saying that he would “universally” deport all undocumented immigrants in the United States. He has said that he would use the military to "secure the border" and that US-born children of unauthorised immigrants must “earn” citizenship by passing the civics test required for naturalised citizens or serving for six months in the country’s military or as a first responder.

Read more

• Politico: The astonishing, unexpected and completely modern rise of Vivek Ramaswamy (23 August 2023)
• Australian Financial Review: Australia should step up Taiwan defence, says US presidential hopeful (23 July 2023)
• Washington Post: He wrote the book on crushing ‘wokeism.’ Now he’s running for president (3 April 2023)
• New Yorker: The C.E.O. of Anti-Woke Inc. (19 December 2022)

Nikki Haley

Known for: 2024 presidential campaign, US Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–18), Governor of South Carolina (2011–17)

Home state: South Carolina

Age in 2024: 52 (born 20 January 1972)

Trump announces that he has accepted Haley's resignation as US Ambassador to the United Nations, in the Oval Office on 9 October 2018 in Washington, DC.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Haley became South Carolina’s youngest ever, and first female, governor in 2010 at just 38 years old. During her tenure, she garnered national attention for her controversial decision to remove the Confederate flag from State House grounds in 2015. She became the first Indian American US Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, overseeing the US withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council and having a public spat with the Trump White House over whether or not further sanctions would be imposed on Russia. She returned to the spotlight as the last Republican primary candidate standing in the way of Trump winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination for a third consecutive time. Her refusal to end her candidacy earlier in the race drew strong attacks from Trump, though it also won her support from a sizeable minority of the party.

VP CV

Haley’s presidential campaign was noted for its foreign policy emphasis, drawing on her UN ambassadorship. More important for Trump, however, would be her wider appeal to independent voters and to the moderate wing of the Republican party who may not otherwise turn out to vote for him. Her proposed five-year “term limit” for federal bureaucrats also aligns with Trump’s planned restructuring of the public service. Haley has explicitly denied interest in serving as vice president and aggressively attacked, and was attacked by, Trump on the campaign trail making her an unlikely choice of running mate. Nevertheless, after dropping out she said she would vote for Trump and has sought to consolidate support for him at the 2024 Republican National Convention.

“I don’t want to be anybody’s vice president. That is off the table. I have always said that. That is a game that I am not going to play. I don’t want to be vice president.”

20 January 2024, Reuters

Relationship with Trump

As governor, Haley was initially critical of Trump during the 2016 election campaign and did not endorse him in the Republican primaries — offering only begrudging support in the general election. Nevertheless, she was nominated as Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations. As UN ambassador, she was involved in public disagreements with the administration over US foreign policy, though upon her resignation in 2018 Trump praised her as “very special,” “incredible” and a “fantastic person.” She later endorsed Trump for the 2020 election, saying that he had “earned” another term. However, on the 2024 campaign trail her criticism of Trump became increasingly direct and combative. While describing Trump as “the right president at the right time,” Haley has also said that he is “not the same person he was in 2016,” and called Trump “unhinged” and “diminished,” saying that his 2024 presidential campaign is “like suicide for our country.” However, in May 2024 she said she would vote for Trump and before the Republican National Convention encouraged the delegates she won during the primaries to nominate Trump.

What should Australians know?

Haley has singled out Australia as a key ally for the United States in the Indo-Pacific, and pushed for greater US economic and military engagement with regional democracies. She has advocated a hawkish approach to China and global affairs, and supports economic decoupling from China as far as possible. Unlike Trump and many Republicans, she has strongly advocated for continued US support for Ukraine, arguing that it is in the US national interest.

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Haley has described the Indo-Pacific region as a “consequential force” in the 21st century and has called for the United States to strengthen its alliances beyond Europe “so that the world is more safe.” She has emphasised the vital role of democracies in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific, and the importance of ensuring “Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia and all our friends and allies in the Pacific are safe from Communist China.” In efforts to counter threats from China, Haley has argued that the United States should enhance its foothold in Asia and “rally nations” to its side by forging stronger military ties with Australia, Japan and South Korea, and stronger bonds with India and the Philippines. She has also strongly supported the AUKUS partnership with Australia. She has been especially vocal on US-India relations, previously calling for the United States to formalise an alliance with India and describing it as a “vital strategic partner” in securing peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.
• China | Haley wants the United States to “think about China critically, creatively and courageously.” On the campaign trail, she outlined a range of proposals, including pushing to ban federal funding for universities that accept Chinese funding, preventing Chinese investors from purchasing land, and enticing US businesses to “leave China as completely as possible.” She has also argued that US agricultural dominance is necessary “so that China is always dependent on America for their food.” Haley has stated that Beijing’s military build-up and escalating aggression toward Taiwan indicates that China is “preparing its people for war” and “it’s not a matter of if but rather when there’s going to be an invasion.” She has called for the United States and its allies to stand with Taiwan “without apology” and provide “everything” it needs to bolster its military and economic strength to deter a Chinese invasion, including maintaining a strong US naval presence in the Taiwan Strait.
• Trade | Haley has described herself as a “firm believer in economic freedom,” but also noted that “not all trade with all trading partners is the same,” suggesting that US companies should prepare for an economic decoupling from China and that “if it is not made in America, we want a friend to make it.” She has called for a US-Taiwan free trade deal and was also a signatory of a 2015 letter to Congress supporting legislation to reauthorise the US Export-Import Bank to allow “our companies and workers to compete on a level playing field against international competitors.” Haley believes the United States should "end all normal trade relations with China" and has denounced Trump's planned tariffs on all US imports as "ludicrous" but suggested that she would still support higher tariffs on China.
• Ukraine | Haley argues that support for Ukraine is in the US national interest. She described Ukraine as the “first line of defence” for the United States and said that the United States should provide Ukraine with “the equipment, the ammunition to win.” She also asserted that China is watching the war “with great interest,” and that weak US support for Ukraine would “only encourage” China to invade Taiwan.
• Israel | Israeli media described Haley as a “star among pro-Israel Republicans.” As UN ambassador, Haley accused the UN of “bullying” Israel for its treatment of Palestinians and previously supported the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. She has characterised the ongoing war with Hamas as a “battle between good and evil” and a conflict that “will determine our civilisation’s survival." Haley has said that victory for Israel in its war with Hamas would “warn Russia and China not to mess with our friends and allies,” and that no ceasefire or pause should be reached, describing the UN resolution for an immediate ceasefire as “shameful.”
• Climate | During the first Republican primary debate, Haley minimised the need for US environmental action, arguing that climate change is “real” but that the onus lies on China and India to lower their emissions. She has condemned President Biden’s energy policies as “anti-American,” and a 2020 video released by her advocacy group ‘Stand for America’ heralded “free market solutions” like carbon-capture technology, reforestation, energy storage solutions and fracking. In June 2023, she called for the United States to bolster its domestic energy security and end reliance on countries like Russia, by producing domestic oil and removing the Biden administration’s permits and regulations on energy producers.

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Haley described the 2022 Dobbs decision as a “victory for life and democracy.” As governor, she signed a bill into law in 2016 that made abortions beyond 20 weeks illegal, saying the law was “the furthest we could get it at the time.” Like her 2024 Republican primary competitors, Haley has called herself “unapologetically pro-life" but struck a different tone by emphasising “consensus” and the need to be “honest” about the public appetite for abortion restrictions and the hurdles to passing legislation through Congress.
• Immigration | In the early months of her first term as governor in 2011, Nikki Haley signed into law a bill that required police and employers to stringently check immigration statuses in what she described as the “toughest illegal immigration law in the country.” During her presidential campaign, she indicated she wanted to “go national” with similar legislation. In 2016, Haley called Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigration “absolutely un-American," though as UN ambassador she later defended his travel bans. While Trump’s campaign tried to suggest that Haley opposed the former president’s border wall, on the campaign trail she said that she supported a border wall but that other measures were also needed. She called for the defunding of sanctuary cities and ensuring that “every business has to prove that the people they hire are in this country legally,” mirroring her South Carolina legislation.

Read more

• Politico: 55 things you need to know about Nikki Haley (14 February 2024)
• New York Times: What makes Nikki Haley tougher than the rest (13 January 2024)
• Wall Street Journal: My plan to confront the China threat(26 June 2023)
• The Conversation: Nikki Haley: the ‘new generation’ candidate trying to win the Republican nomination (10 June 2023)

Kari Lake

Known for: News anchor, Arizona gubernatorial campaign (2022)

Home state: Arizona

Age in 2024: 55 (born 23 August 1969)

Lake speaks as Trump looks on at a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds on 15 January 2022 in Florence, Arizona.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Self-described as “Trump in a dress,” Lake is most widely known for her narrow loss in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election despite strong backing from Trump during the campaign. A former news anchor, she is now running for the state’s Senate seat. Lake never conceded her 2022 loss, filing lawsuits in the aftermath and saying she is “never going to walk away from the fight to restore honest elections.” She attracted attention in Australia in 2022 for a 60 Minutes interview in which she derided Australian gun laws, described Australian pandemic quarantine measures as “internment camps” and “the most horrifying thing I think I’ve ever seen a government do,” and stated that Australians have “given your rights away, you melted down all your guns and you guys have no freedom.”

VP CV

Despite her narrow 2022 campaign loss, Lake has maintained a high profile in the Republican party through her effusive praise of Trump and mirroring of his rhetoric. She has emphasised her ‘America First’ credentials, saying “when it comes to globalism, I’m the most dangerous politician in the world.” While she lacks experience in government, she could potentially help Trump’s appeal with suburban women — a key electoral demographic for his campaign — and her home state is a key target for both campaigns. She would likely remain in lockstep with Trump’s policy agenda throughout his administration.

“[Lake] is not worried about who President Trump picks as his vice president, but she is certain it will be a great pick. She is focused on winning her Senate race in Arizona.”

20 November 2023, Lake campaign spokesperson, Vanity Fair

Relationship with Trump

Lake has maintained a close relationship with Trump since her 2022 run, which she undertook with his backing. She has claimed that Trump “helped inspire me to run for office” because he “reminded the American People that they should always come first.” She has also dismissed Trump’s legal issues as “a nothing burger.” In turn, Trump has strongly endorsed Lake in her 2024 Senate race, saying: “When I’m back in the White House, I need strong fighters like Kari in the Senate... Kari is one of the toughest fighters in our movement, and I am proud to give her my complete and total endorsement for the United States Senate."

What should Australians know?

Lake has publicly spoken comparatively little on foreign policy, instead focusing on domestic political debates. However, she has strongly argued against continued aid to Ukraine and is likely to mirror Trump’s broader approach to allies and global affairs.

Foreign policy

• China | Lake has used China to attack Joe Biden and argue for tougher border measures. She has claimed that Biden has been “bought and paid for by the CCP” and that “the CCP is a threat to our national security” because of a “500% increase in Chinese illegal immigrants breaking into America.” She has claimed that “American farmland is being gobbled up by the CCP” and has pledged to “take every square inch of US farmland back from China.”
• Ukraine | Lake has predicated support for Ukraine on immigration reform, saying that “not one penny should go to Ukraine until we have a secure border.” She has echoed Trump’s comments on NATO and said that “everyone needs to pay their fair share” and that “we can’t protect the entire world.” Lake has argued that Americans are “tired of pouring their hard-earned money” into Ukraine and said that the war “[is] over, it’s lost.”
• Israel | Similarly to the other vice presidential contenders, Lake has spoken out aggressively in support of Israel in recent months, saying that “America must stand with our friend and ally in the Middle East” and claiming that “Israel’s strongest ally was President Trump.” She has called Hamas “despicable creatures” and said that “Israel is right to want to wipe them off the planet.”

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Lake called abortion the “ultimate sin” during her gubernatorial campaign. She has since softened her stance, describing federal abortion laws as “wrong," calling for the government to provide more resources and support to pregnant women so they have “real options” and saying that “just like President Trump, I believe the issue of abortion should be left to the states.”
• Immigration | In her run for Senate in 2024, Lake has unveiled a “10 Point Plan to Secure the Border” and said she is committed to “finishing the wall” and enhancing technological surveillance on the border. She has argued that she called US immigration an “invasion” “before anybody else had recognised it” and has advocated for measures such as expanding and enforcing the E-Verify program, introducing automatic and immediate deportation of individuals who attempt to enter the country outside of official entry ports, and withholding foreign aid to countries that do not “actively assist” US agencies in deterring migrants.

Read more

• Axios: Kari Lake among 4 women Trump’s considering for VP pick (7 March 2023)
• Time: How Kari Lake went from local anchor to new face of the MAGA right (26 October 2022)
• The Atlantic: Trumpism has found its leading lady (9 October 2022)

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Known for: Governor of Arkansas (2023–present), White House press secretary (2017–2019), being the daughter of former governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee

Home state: Arkansas

Age in 2024: 42 (born 13 August 1982)

Trump stands with Sanders during his rally where he announced his candidacy for a second presidential term on 18 June 2019 in Orlando, Florida.Source: Getty

Who are they?

The current governor of Arkansas first developed a national profile as White House press secretary in the Trump administration but previously held roles in the US Department of Education during the George W Bush administration and was involved in the political campaigns of her father, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. As press secretary, she hosted fewer press conferences than the 13 previous White House press secretaries before her and daily press briefings became irregular towards the end of her tenure. She also accompanied Trump on all of his overseas trips during her tenure. As governor, she promised to make education reform the “hallmark” of her administration as an “education governor,” and passed the sweeping LEARNS Act in March 2023, which raised minimum teacher salaries, made it easier to fire poorly performing teachers, and placed restrictions on classroom instruction on “gender identity, sexual orientation and sexual reproduction” before fifth grade.

VP CV

Sanders’ relative youth would help to allay concerns over Trump’s age, which Sanders herself alluded to in her 2023 response to President Biden’s State of the Union when she called for a “new generation” of Republican leaders. She has remained on good terms with the former president, though Trump was reportedly frustrated that she took until November 2023 to endorse him in the 2024 race. As a more conventional Republican, Sanders would likely bolster Trump’s appeal to the Republican establishment and among women, though her red state background would do little to expand Trump’s electoral map.

“Look, I absolutely love the job I have. I think it’s one of the best jobs I could ever ask for and I am honoured to serve as governor and I hope I get to do it for the next seven years.”

21 January, 2024, CBS News Face the Nation

Relationship with Trump

Trump endorsed Sanders for governor just a day after she first announced her candidacy in January 2021, a move which she reciprocated in her endorsement of Trump in November 2023 after reportedly refusing to do so earlier in the year. While her early 2023 calls for a generational passing of the torch among Republicans could be read as advocating for the party to move on from Trump, she has doubled down on her Trump endorsement in recent months, saying that the “normal policies of the Trump era... created a safer, stronger, and more prosperous America, and that’s why I am proud to endorse Donald Trump for President.” In particular, she praises Trump’s handling of the economy, border security and “taking a hard line again China.”

What should Australians know?

As press secretary, Sanders largely stuck to talking points on issues ranging from nuanced US Taiwan policy to the administration’s “commitment to long-standing United States alliances and partnerships.” However, since leaving the White House, she has increasingly emphasised the value of Indo-Pacific alliances to countering what she calls the “rising threat” posed by China and claims she was the first US governor to “kick a Chinese state-owned company off American farmland.”

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Sanders is slated to travel to South Korea and Japan in March 2024 on a week-long overseas trade mission to deepen Arkansas’ “connection with America’s Asian allies,” and has emphasised that “with the rising threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party, these relationships have never been more important.” As the White House’s spokesperson, she conveyed the administration’s talking points on the “commitment to long-standing United States alliances and partnerships” and the US “vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific based on respect for sovereignty, the rule of law, and the principles of free, fair, and reciprocal trade." In 2018, she stated that under Trump, the United States had “the strongest military we have ever had,” and has since argued that “it has never been more clear or more urgent that America needs to reinvest in its defense."
• China | Sanders describes China as “America’s greatest threat" and a “hostile foreign adversary.” In her 2023 State of the Union response, she said that Biden’s “refusal to stand up to China... is dangerous and unacceptable.” As governor, she has investigated China-linked businesses in Arkansas and led a group of 17 state leaders in a letter to the White House to use "all available tools to prevent continued acquisition of American lands by adversarial foreign governments and entities" with a focus on China. She has claimed to be the “first governor in the country to kick a Chinese state-owned country off American farmland” and joined other states in banning TikTok from government devices. As the Trump administration’s press secretary, she stuck to White House talking points on cross-strait relations, and soon after resigning from the White House, was hosted by the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2019.
• Ukraine | Sanders denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, stating that “evil is on the march, and the world desperately needs America to be strong and a light in the darkness again.” She was featured on a March 2023 list of 500 Americans who are banned from entering Russia for condemning Putin’s war in Ukraine and stated that “Putin must pay a heavy price” for the death of a US journalist. As press secretary, she was the mouthpiece of Trump’s Russia policy, reiterating his gripes about NATO countries not shouldering the burden of defence spending.
• Israel | As governor, Sanders has consistently stated that Arkansas “stands with Israel” and has described Israel’s war in Gaza as an “ongoing battle between good and evil.” She joined 20 Republican governors in October 2023 in blaming the war on the Biden administration’s "appeasement-first foreign policy” and calling for President Biden “to project American strength by, among other things, clearly and unequivocally condemning these attacks and supporting Israel’s unquestioned right to respond and defend itself.”

Domestic policy

• Domestic battles | Sanders has pursued common conservative cultural topics, including signing an executive order on her first day as governor banning the teaching of critical race theory and ideologies that she believes “indoctrinate students.” She has also banned the official use of terms such as “Latinx” and what she describes as “anti-woman words.” Sanders described the overturning of Roe v Wade as “a day so many of us have prayed for and worked towards.” She has described herself as “unapologetically pro-life" and said that she would not support exceptions for rape and incest in anti-abortion legislation during her gubernatorial campaign.
• Immigration | Sanders has spoken out strongly on border security issues and claimed in her 2023 State of the Union response that the Biden administration "refuses to secure the border” after inheriting “the most secure border in history.” As Arkansas governor, Sanders deployed the state’s National Guard to the southern border to assist the Texas National Guard in mid-2023, despite Arkansas not being a border state, and said that Democratic policies that unwound Trump-era border restrictions “isn’t compassion — it’s cruelty.” She wrote in August 2023 that “it’s time to close our border, stop the cartels, and end the flow of drugs and illegals into our country.”

Read more

• New Republic: Sarah Huckabee Sanders is content in Little Rock. For now (13 June 2023)
• Washington Post: Sarah Huckabee Sanders goes at ‘woke’ left in State of the Union response (7 February 2023)
• New Yorker: Is Sarah Huckabee Sanders the future of the Republican party? (17 June 2019)

Byron Donalds

Known for: US House Representative for Florida’s 19th Congressional district (2021–)

Home state: Florida

Age in 2024: 46 (born 28 October 1978)

Donalds shakes hands with Trump during the Moms for Liberty Joyful Warriors national summit on 30 June 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Source: Getty

Who are they?

Byron Donalds lacks the national profile of some of the other vice presidential contenders, but the hard-right House Freedom Caucus member has positioned himself as a rising star within the Republican party. After a decade as a credit analyst and financial advisor, as well as an unsuccessful run for Congress in 2012, he was elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2016 and then to the US House of Representative in 2020. Donalds rose to national prominence as candidate for House Speaker in January 2023, delaying Kevin McCarthy’s speakership through multiple rounds of voting, and again in October 2023 as one of many candidates after McCarthy was ousted. Donalds has maintained close ties with Trump since Donalds’ election to Congress in 2020 — he has questioned the integrity of the 2020 election and has denied that Biden is a legitimate president — though Donalds did appear at one point open to supporting DeSantis’ presidential bid. At the peak of DeSantis’ popularity in late 2022, Donalds praised the Florida governor, saying DeSantis had "done a phenomenal job" and "even Joe Biden had to acknowledge it". Donalds ultimately, however, endorsed the former president’s candidacy instead of DeSantis’ during the 2024 Republican primaries.

VP CV

Donalds lacks the public profile of some of the other possible candidates for Trump’s running mate but has remained closely politically aligned to the former president. He is comparatively young and one of few Black Republicans in Congress, making him a potential electoral asset for Trump. Perhaps more importantly for Trump, however, has been Donalds’ strident defence of the former president in recent years. Donalds voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, endorsed Trump in the Republican primaries as early as April 2023 and has pushed an America First agenda in Congress by pushing back against further aid for Ukraine. However, there are constitutional issues with the president and vice president hailing from the same state. Given that Trump and Donalds are both Florida residents, one or the other would have to move if Trump chooses Donalds as his running mate.

“Yeah, I would [accept the role]... Pretty cool to be on the shortlist... whatever he decides, I’m gonna be fine with."

22 February 2024, Capitol Report interview

Relationship with Trump

Donalds criticised Donald Trump in 2011 and 2012 for Trump's trade protectionism and questioning of then President Obama's birthplace, saying “Trump is a huge distraction, and cares more about himself than the country in my opinion, but I could care less about him.” But since taking office in 2020, Donalds has worked to position himself as a close ally of Trump and endorsed the former president early in the Republican primary cycle. Donalds sought and received Trump’s endorsement in both the 2020 election and 2022 midterms. Trump described Donalds as a “young man with a great future” during the Republican House speakership contest in January 2023, though declined to endorse his candidacy for Speaker ahead of Kevin McCarthy. Donalds rallied for Trump in 2016 and in March 2024 said that he would be willing to not certify the results of the 2028 election if he were vice president.

What should Australians know?

Compared to others on the vice presidential shortlist, Donalds has spoken relatively little about his outlook on Australia and the region. He has introduced numerous foreign policy bills — though almost none have progressed to a vote. Internationally, he has pushed for diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and the ending of the US ‘One China’ policy and supported Taiwan’s full participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC). He has highlighted critical mineral supply chains as an important issue, opposes further US support for Ukraine, and advocates for the United States to be a “world leader in nuclear power.”

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Donalds has referred to Taiwan as a “longstanding ally” and supported its full diplomatic recognition, but has provided little other indication of his views on the Indo-Pacific beyond his support for measures to counter China’s influence. In February 2024, he was part of a minority of Republicans that voted against a bill — though he did not elaborate on why — that directed the State Department to establish an intra-parliamentary Quad working group and to develop a strategy for bolstering engagement on economic growth, technology cooperation and energy innovation.
• China | In November 2023, Donalds stated that “China’s goals have been clear, they want to become the world superpower, both economically and militarily.” In Congress, he has co-sponsored bills on issues such as countering Chinese espionage, preventing CCP-entities from purchasing US land and imposing sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the fentanyl trade — none of which have passed the House. He has repeatedly highlighted critical mineral supply chains as an important issue in the context of US-China strategic competition, saying in November 2023 that “China is dominating the globe in critical minerals” and the United States needs to “stop the environmental foolishness, get into the game, because critical minerals are essential.” He supported the Biden administration’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, as a statement against China’s human rights abuses, but said that the boycott did “not go far enough,” arguing that “it is time Biden and his counterparts intensify their message to the world; we will not tolerate China's brutal and inhumane actions against the Uyghurs.”
• Trade | While running as a Tea Party candidate in 2012, Donalds criticised Trump’s protectionist policies, calling Trump “a self-serving promoter yelling about 25% tariffs on China” and saying that Chinese manufactured goods made household items more affordable for Americans. However, his more recent comments from 2023 suggest he has now adopted a harder line on US trade with China. Donalds has also advocated for building a stronger US trade presence in Africa, citing US-Kenya free trade agreement negotiations started under Trump as a blueprint, to “effectively counter malign Chinese influence” in the region, which he characterises as “blatantly self-serving" and “diplomatic coercion.”
• Taiwan | Donalds views Taiwan as a “longstanding ally” and “trusted diplomatic partner.” In January 2023, he co-sponsored a concurrent resolution — currently in Committee — that would end America’s ‘One China’ Policy and recognise Taiwan as an independent nation, calling for the United States to resume normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement, and support Taiwan’s membership in international organisations. In September 2023, he sponsored a bill that would prohibit federal agencies from referring to Taiwan as ‘Chinese Taipei’ to “ultimately exert the belief that Taiwan’s status must be resolved peacefully.” The legislation states that “the People’s Republic of China seeks to control Taiwan through means of persuasion and coercion, and potentially compellance” and calls for the United States to “support and defend Taiwan.” In December 2023, Donalds also co-sponsored a concurrent resolution, that advocates for Taiwan’s “full participation” in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and the Taiwanese president’s attendance at APEC leaders’ events held in the United States.
• Ukraine | As a member of the House Freedom Caucus, Donalds is part of a growing minority of Republicans who vocally oppose further aid to Ukraine. After supporting the first supplemental funding for Ukraine in April 2022, Donalds later stated that he “started voting no” to US aid for Ukraine because the United States “should not be spending money in other parts of the world with no accountability.” He has blamed the war on President Biden’s leadership and, ahead of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s September 2023 visit to Capitol Hill, stated that “there is no money in the House right now for Ukraine” and “any money we give to Ukraine, we’re also borrowing from our future,” citing the US budget deficit. Donalds has also linked Ukraine funding to the issue of immigration, and in December 2023 argued that while he is “not prepared to let Vladimir Putin win anything,” it is important to “take care of issues at home first,” specifically referencing the need to secure the US border.
• Israel | In 2021, Donalds described Israel as “our closest ally in the Middle East, and one of our strongest allies worldwide,” and said that he “will always stand with Israel.” Since the October 2023 attacks, he has argued that the United States “must stand with Israel” and has highlighted his role in “actively working to advance pro-Israel legislation in Congress.” This includes supporting legislation that calls for sanctioning Iran, condemning Hamas, demanding the release of Israeli hostages, and “reaffirm[ing] the US-Israel alliance.”
• Climate change | Donalds is an active proponent of civil nuclear energy, and has advocated for the United States to become the “world leader in nuclear power.” He says that his interest in nuclear energy is fueled by Donalds’ belief that it is “cheap, affordable, readily-available power” and “the cleanest, “greenest,” and most reliable source of energy,” as well as concerns with what he describes as “the dishonest environmental, social, and corporate governance policy ’push’.” He believes that “it is in the best interest of the United States and the rest of the world for our country, instead of China and Russia, to be the preferred partner for embarking nuclear nations” so that the United States can influence responsible global nuclear protocols and regulations. To this end, he has introduced dozens of bills related to bolstering US domestic and global nuclear energy efforts — none of which have passed the House — including proposals for launching an international nuclear initiative with ally or partner nations and establishing a strategic nuclear infrastructure working group to advise the US National Security Council. Donalds, like all Republicans in Congress, voted against the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and has continued to criticise the law, writing in August 2023 that the bill is a “$1 TRILLION boondoggle of a bill did nothing to lower inflation.”

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Donalds received an A+ rating from the anti-abortion Susan B Anthony List and has stated in 2020 that he “will always stand on the side of life.” He described the 2022 Dobbs decision as “one of the most pro-democracy rulings in modern history,” stating that “an overwhelming majority of the Court finally overturned 50 years of unsound law and judicial overreach.” Donalds believes that “regulating abortion is the job of the states, not the federal government” and has stated that he “will vote NO on any effort to expand abortion access in America.” He was one of almost 90 Republican sponsors of the Protect the UNBORN (Undo the Negligent Biden Orders Right Now) Act — currently referred to the Subcommittee on Health — which would prohibit the use of federal funding for executive orders related to reproductive health services. Following a February 2024 Alabama Supreme Court ruling which restricted IVF access, Donalds spoke out in favour of IVF and said the procedure “is very important to a lot of couples in our country.”
• Immigration | In a 2020 campaign video, Donalds stated that “when it comes to immigration, we have to adopt an America First policy.” He voted against the bipartisan border security deal in February that also included funding for Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies. He criticised the deal as giving “cover to Joe Biden for his terrible policies on the border.” Like other Trump-aligned Republicans, Donalds has linked border security to national security and funding for Ukraine, saying in February 2024 that President Biden needs to decide “which country matters more to [him]: the border of the United States or the border of Ukraine.” He has sponsored multiple immigration bills, including the Close Biden’s Open Border Act which would provide US$15 billion in funding for the construction of a southern border wall, and the Border Safety and Security Act of 2023 which would authorise the Secretary of Homeland Security to suspend the entry of non-US nationals at the border.

Read more

• Vanity Fair: Ron DeSantis may have a successor in the wings: Byron Donalds (13 July 2023)
• Washington Post: Who is Byron Donalds? The latest Republican nominee for House speaker (4 January 2023)
• New York Times: A Florida Republican on election integrity and Trump’s fraud claims (22 May 2021)

Kristi Noem

Known for: Governor of South Dakota (2019–), US House Representative for South Dakota’s at-large district (2011–2019)

Home state: South Dakota

Age in 2024: 52 (born 30 November 1971)

Trump speaks with Noem during a meeting with Governors-Elect in the Cabinet Room at the White House on 13 December 2018 in Washington, DC.Source: Getty

Who are they?

South Dakota’s first female governor started her political career in the South Dakota House of Representatives in 2006 and later spent eight years in Congress. Noem was endorsed by Trump during her 2018 gubernatorial campaign and rose to national prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic over her banning of mask and vaccination mandates, and insistence on keeping schools and businesses open. She was re-elected in 2022 with the largest vote total in South Dakota’s history and has been a strong advocate of limited government, stating that “the solution to our challenges lies in less government, not more.”

VP CV

Like Stefanik, Noem could help Trump’s image among younger voters and women, and has positioned herself as a loyalist to his movement. While she was once a leading contender to be Trump's running mate, her release of a widely panned memoir in which she described killing her own dog provoked a political firestorm that severely damaged her chances. During the pandemic, Noem’s policies mirrored Trump’s national rhetoric, and she refused to issue a statewide mask mandate and encouraged businesses to remain open. While her governorship of South Dakota gives her leadership experience, she has middling approval ratings and the deep red state would do little to expand Trump’s electoral map. She has heaped praise on Trump both during and after his tenure in the White House, saying that the United States “desperately” needs Trump as president.

“I think anybody in this country, if they were offered [the vice presidency], needs to consider it.”

4 January 2024, CBS News

Relationship with Trump

Trump and Noem have maintained a strong relationship since his first term. After he endorsed her 2018 gubernatorial campaign, she returned the favour by campaigning for Trump in Iowa in January 2024. Trump has praised her, recently saying that she “has been incredible fighting for me. She said, 'I'd never run against him because I can't beat him.' That was a very nice thing to say." Noem attributed the continued existence of the United States to “the good that [Trump] did when he was in the White House — and how he still continues to tell the truth out there every single day.”

What should Australians know?

Noem’s support for international economic engagement has been framed around trade and South Dakotan interest in agriculture and market access. She echoes Trump’s isolationist rhetoric regarding Ukraine and has strongly opposed Biden’s climate policies, potentially suggesting that she would not support the Australia-US Climate Compact, but she may be less willing to abandon efforts that increase US market access for agricultural exports.

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | In 2014, Noem joined a congressional delegation to meet leaders in Japan, South Korea and China to discuss regional security, trade opportunities and strengthening alliances. In her two years on the House Armed Services Committee, she reportedly worked on the 2014 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and sat on the committee during its review of the US pivot to Asia under the Obama administration. In Congress in 2011, Noem voted to raise the US debt ceiling but called for reform of the US tax code and for long-term spending cuts to offset the cost.
• China | Noem has claimed that the Chinese Communist Party is “the biggest external threat facing America today” and has a “long-term agenda to destroy the United States.” She was the second US governor to ban TikTok and Tencent from state government-issued devices and has been especially critical of China regarding food supply and foreign land acquisition, given South Dakota’s reliance on agriculture. She advocates for labelling China as a “foreign adversary entity” of elevated risk when reviewing property transactions and endorsed the PRC Accountability and Divestment Act of 2023, which seeks to restrict state investments in CCP-linked companies.
• Trade | Noem indicated support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2016, in the belief that trade agreements bolster US security and ensure that China does not become “the country of influence” among regional partners. In 2019, she stated that Trump’s trade wars had “devastated” South Dakota and, while she agreed that countries like China had engaged in unfair trade practices, she urged the Trump administration to “quickly wrap up” its trade discussions with Beijing. Noem has emphasised the particular importance of the Indo-Pacific region as a market for US and South Dakotan agricultural products and lauded the signing of the US-Japan trade agreement in 2019 as “great news” for South Dakota’s farmers and ranchers.
• Ukraine | Noem has repeatedly blamed Biden for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. She has particularly criticised Biden’s blocking of the Keystone XL pipeline and green lighting of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which she said provided Russia “the leverage to create the crisis that we are witnessing unfold in Ukraine.” Instead of challenging Russia, Noem has said that border security should be a greater focus of national security and that it is “wrong” and “backwards” that “Washington has sent more money to Ukraine than we’ve spent securing the border in the last five years.” Noem has also argued that US economic sanctions put on Russia after its 2022 invasion have “hurt the American people too.”
• Israel | Similar to the other possible vice presidential candidates, Noem strongly supports Israel as “America’s most important friend and strategic ally,” saying Israelis were “devastated by a barbaric invasion of their God-given homeland.” According to Noem, “South Dakota has a long history of being allied with the State of Israel and the Jewish people,” citing a 2020 executive order prohibiting South Dakota executive branch agencies from “contracting with entities boycotting Israel.”
• Climate | Noem is a strong opponent of Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Under her governorship, South Dakota is one of four states that did not apply for clean energy grants provided by the IRA, and one of six that has not applied for its federal grant program, Solar for All Initiative, which aims to lower utility costs and promote renewable energy. She has criticised the grants, saying they “often comes with strings attached,” and joined other Republican governors to call the bill “another reckless tax and spending spree.”

Domestic policy

• Domestic battles | Noem is aligned with conservative Republican views on a range of domestic issues. As governor, Noem has deployed the state’s National Guard to the southern border three times (though the number of unauthorised immigrants in South Dakota is far fewer than in other states) and described current immigration issues as a “warzone at our Southern Border” and an “invasion.” She claimed there is “an organized, coordinated campaign to remove and eliminate all references to our nation’s founding and many other parts of our history.” Noem defended a state ban on abortion with exceptions only in cases of life risk for the mother and said that the overturning of Roe v Wade was “wonderful news.” However, she suggested she would not advocate for a nation-wide abortion ban.

Read more

• Australian Financial Review: The women who could be Trump’s vice president (23 February 2024)
• The Atlantic: The governor who wants to be Trump’s next apprentice (10 January 2024)
• Washington Post: Why South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is so polarizing (5 October 2021)
• New York Times: Why Kristi Noem is rising quickly as a Republican prospect for 2024 (2 May 2021)

Joni Ernst

Known for: Senator from Iowa (2015–), Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee (2023–)

Home state: Iowa

Age in 2024: 54 (born 1 July 1970)

Ernst at the Supreme Court confirmation hearing of Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett on Capitol Hill on 14 October 2020 in Washington, DC.Source: Getty

Who are they?

Ernst served in the Iowa National Guard for over 20 years before beginning a career in politics. An Iowa State Senator from 2011–14, she was elected in 2014 as the first woman to represent Iowa in the US Senate and the first Republican to hold her Senate seat in over 35 years. Ernst has since become the fourth-ranked Republican Senator as Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, meaning she manages and directs the weekly official forum for Republican senators to debate and discuss their legislative agenda in the Senate. She is currently challenging Senator Tom Cotton to be Senate Republican Conference chair, a position which involves shaping party messaging, coordinating legislative strategies in the Senate, and being a leading party spokesperson. This would move her up the GOP Senate leadership rankings and make Ernst only the second Republican woman to hold the position, and the first since 1973. Throughout her Senate tenure she has championed conservative causes and spoken extensively on the importance of Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships for US security.

VP CV

Although she has branded herself as an outsider, Ernst’s background and more conventional views on free trade and foreign aid would make her closer to an establishment pick for Trump’s vice president than several of the other possible candidates for the job. She has emphasised her military experience and has demonstrated a focus on foreign policy legislation in Congress. Ernst was interviewed as a possible running mate for Trump in 2016 but turned him down, “knowing it wasn’t the right thing for me or my family.” If chosen, she would likely play a similar role as former vice president Mike Pence during the Trump administration in engaging with and reassuring allies about US foreign policy.

“I think it’s an honour just to be considered and talked about [as Trump’s running mate]... I would like to see someone with that national security, foreign policy experience considered.”

12 January 2024, Guy Benson Show interview

Relationship with Trump

Ernst was interviewed by Trump in 2016 as a possible vice presidential running mate but declined, citing family obligations and saying “President Trump will need some great assistance in the United States Senate and I can provide that.” As a Senator, she overwhelmingly voted in line with Trump’s positions, endorsed him in 2020 and voted to acquit Trump in both of his impeachment trials. Trump gave Ernst support during her 2020 re-election campaign, however, Ernst voted to certify the results of the 2020 election, was the last member of the US Senate Republican leadership to endorse Trump in 2024 and in 2023 said that the Republican party “is so much more than Donald Trump.” Ernst has expressed willingness to serve as Trump’s vice president, but was publicly denounced in February 2024 by Donald Trump Jr for her vote to provide military aid to Ukraine, which has likely damaged her chances of selection.

What should Australians know?

Ernst has emphasised her military experience and has particularly focused on foreign policy during her time in Congress, advocating for the United States to deepen its engagement with Australia and the Indo-Pacific. She described the Australia-US alliance as a “critical friendship” in 2021, and has supported legislation facilitating the AUKUS agreement, and highlighted US interest in technological development under AUKUS Pillar II. Ernst has traveled on multiple regional delegations, noting the importance of Indo-Pacific partnerships “not only for our strategic national defense interests, but also for our economic growth.”

Foreign policy

• Asian alliances | Since her election to the Senate, Ernst has advocated for the United States to bolster its commitment to its allies and partners. In June 2023, she argued that “as China increases its nefarious activities on the world stage, strong US relations with the Indo-Pacific are increasingly important.” Ernst has joined multiple delegations to Indo-Pacific nations since joining the Senate in 2015, including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam. She reassured allies in 2016 after, on the campaign trail, Trump threatened to withdraw US troops from South Korea, and later called for the United States to continue its joint military exercises with South Korea when Trump threatened to end them in 2018. Ernst introduced the Rings of Fire Act in July 2023, which aims to strengthen long-range precision strike capabilities in the Indo-Pacific through coordination with key regional allies and partners. The legislation names Northern Australia as a potential key basing location and specifically highlights Australia’s efforts to modernise its guided weapons programs under Pillar II of AUKUS as a sign of allied interest in mutually accelerating development and production timelines. She has called for greater investment in the US submarine industrial base and in May 2023 sponsored the TORPEDO Act — legislation that would reform the US regulatory system to fast-track AUKUS implementation, including by adding Australia and the United Kingdom as domestic sources in the US Defense Production Act. Both the Rings of Fire Act and TORPEDO Act have been referred to Senate committees and are awaiting further action. As early as March 2017, Ernst expressed support for expanded US military exercises and operations in Asia and more recently advocated for “peace through strength” and bolstering the US defence posture in the Indo-Pacific. In January 2023 she said that cuts to US military spending would be “the wrong thing to do when we live in an ever increasingly dangerous, dangerous world.”
• China | Ernst has described China as “the largest threat to our national security” and argued that the United States “must lead a coalition to deter China’s looming imperial expansion around the world and potential takeover of Taiwan and our other partners in the Indo-Pacific.” In July 2016, she led a group of Republican senators in supporting a Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, saying that “it is abundantly clear that China's land reclamation and militarisation in the region must continue to be opposed, and that they must not continue down the path of destabilisation in such a critical region.” Ernst has since sponsored legislation on issues such as ending US reliance on China for critical minerals vital to US national defence and increasing transparency around US contracts paid to China-affiliated entities. Most recently, in August 2023, she introduced legislation aimed at countering Chinese activities in the Pacific by bolstering integration with national security agencies in Pacific Islands nations in Compact of Free Association (COFA) agreements with the United States. In March 2024, she stated that “allowing [TikTok] to operate under China’s authority threatens the security of every American.”
• Taiwan | In November 2023, Ernst argued that Chinese President Xi Jinping “sees an opportunity to invade Taiwan because of Biden’s weakness.” Ernst has repeatedly affirmed her support for Taiwan, and in May 2022 signed a bipartisan letter calling for Taiwan’s inclusion in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, emphasising that US “support for Taiwan and its independence must remain unwavering.” Ernst believes it is “very important” to bolster deterrence through military exercises with regional allies and partners, and has pushed for “strong US leadership to reinforce our rock-solid partnership with Taiwan.” She has met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen multiple times, most recently in a private hour-long bipartisan leadership meeting in March 2023, which Ernst said made her “even more resolved that America’s partnership with Taiwan must be strengthened.” She also called for the quick enhancement of the US-Taiwan partnership “through trade, including Iowa’s agriculture products, and through enhanced military training and swift weapons transfers.”
• Trade | Ernst has indicated support for free trade agreements, pointing to benefits for her agriculturally dominated home state of Iowa. Ernst believes that trade and national defence typically “go hand-in-hand" because “good trade partners make good allies.” She has repeatedly emphasised the need for the United States to enact “free-trade agreements on a multi-lateral, regional or bilateral basis” in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s regional influence and secure US commercial competitiveness. Ernst has advocated for the United States to make “meaningful and enforceable market access commitments,” including considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and voiced concerns that China could become the primary trade partner for regional allies. In 2017, she sent a letter to then-president Trump expressing concern that the United States might withdraw from the US-Korea free trade agreement, arguing that China “would gladly step in to fill that void and consolidate power” in the absence of US leadership in the region, and, later, in 2019, she praised Trump’s signing of the US-Japan trade agreement, highlighting its benefits for Iowa’s agricultural industry.
• Ukraine | Ernst has demonstrated strong support for Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, in the belief that ongoing US military aid is vital to “the defense of our nation and our global standing” and “Ukraine can win this war if the United States and our freedom-loving allies and partners around the globe help them win.” Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she has spoken on the importance of US alliances in Europe, led delegations to European allies and emphasised the role of US military equipment sales and humanitarian supplies in supporting a “free, independent, and sovereign Ukraine.” In April 2022, Ernst co-sponsored bipartisan legislation to streamline the US president’s authority to lend defence articles to the Ukrainian military, and broke with her party in February 2024 to vote for a US$95 billion foreign aid bill that included US$60 billion in support for Ukraine. She has argued that Putin’s “unjust war has only served to strengthen the world’s greatest multinational alliance [NATO],” while also encouraging NATO member countries to “invest in their own defence” and meet the two per cent minimum standard.
• Israel | Since the October 2023 attacks, Ernst has described herself as a “longtime friend and staunch supporter” of Israel. She has consistently supported Israel, and in 2015 met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on a Congressional delegation and described Israel as the US’ “closest ally and strategic partner in the Middle East.” She led a bipartisan delegation to the Middle East in October 2023, visiting Israel just three days after the October 7 attacks to “ensure our ally clearly understood that America will always stand shoulder-to-shoulder with her.” More recently, in January 2024, as co-chair of the Abraham Accords Caucus, she led a delegation to Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and Bahrain, which met with senior leaders and hostage negotiators to advocate “face to face” for the immediate release of American hostages held by Hamas.
• Climate change | Ernst has stated that “our climate always changes and we see those ebb and flows through time,” and emphasised the need for climate policy that is driven by “incentives and innovation” rather than “heavy-handed, top-down regulations from the federal government.” She strongly opposes the Paris Climate Agreement in the belief that it “saddles hardworking folks with over-burdensome government regulations” while letting China “completely off the hook.” Ernst has levelled a similar critique at President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), characterising the legislation as a “scam to enact radical green policies and line China’s pockets,” and part of a “reckless tax-and-spend agenda” for a “liberal wish list.” Ernst has instead touted Iowa’s approach of “incentivising” rather than “mandating,” and advocated for an “all-of-the-above energy approach that increases America’s domestic production and promotes energy independence.”

Domestic policy

• Abortion | Ernst has denounced what she calls the “horrific realities of abortion" and said that anti-abortion advocates “will continually win” if they promote “innocent life” and “the right to live.” As a Senator, she has sought to defund Planned Parenthood in favour of other women’s health services and supported a national ban on abortion after five months, in contrast to some of her Republican colleagues who have pushed for stricter bans or who advocate for abortion to be regulated by the states. Ernst has also led Republican Senate efforts to block Department of Defense funding for abortion-related travel. She has described herself as “proudly and adamantly pro-life" and stated that the overturning of the Roe v Wade decision “reflects the science, will save lives, and rightly returns policymaking power back to the American people and their elected officials.”
• Immigration | Ernst praised the contents of a bipartisan border security bill in February 2024, but ultimately voted against it after backlash from her constituents. She expressed anger that Congress was unable to pass it, saying that “even my own colleagues were out there knowingly putting out misinformation about the bill” because of “a former president.” She has called for expanded federal law enforcement powers to be able to detain and deport undocumented immigrants who are charged with or convicted of crimes. During the Trump administration, Ernst stated that, while a border wall was required in some areas, it would be unnecessary in some sections of the southern border. In 2018, Ernst also joined Democratic Senators to oppose the use of military lawyers to prosecute immigration cases at the border.

Read more

• Politico: This GOP senator has a vision for her party’s future — and clout in Iowa (30 May 2023)
• Council on Foreign Relations: Defense and Emerging Technology: A Conversation with Senator Joni Ernst (18 June 2019)
• The Atlantic: Joni Ernst’s Rapid Rise in the Senate (22 September 2015)