Donald Trump, after another weekend of frenetic big-crowd campaigning, could be sitting on a greater than one-in-three chance of winning the US presidential election seven weeks from now. The Australian Financial Review reports that that's the view of USSC CEO Simon Jackman who correctly picked the outcome in every US state in the 2012 election. But there's a big caveat: that the current polls will be as wrong in 2020 as they were in 2016. Because if they're accurate, Mr Trump's chances of victory are just 5.3 per cent, says Jackman and data researcher Zoe Meers, in a report released today.
Trump still in the fight if polls are as wrong as in 2016
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Professor Simon Jackman