The Australian reports that a new analysis published by the United States Studies Centre of swing-state polling in the US finds Donald Trump is likely to lose the upcoming US election but could scrape back into the White House if the polls turn out to be as inaccurate as they were in 2016.

The study, which reinterprets current polling in 11 key battleground states based on past polling errors, finds Joe Biden has at least a 65.1 per cent of winning the November 3 election.