Subscribe to receive The 46th in your inbox weekly

Thanksgiving is always a time for reflection, but perhaps especially this year at what seems like an inflection point in American politics.

Polling released as part of Trump’s exploration of a 2024 presidential run show him well ahead in head-to-head matchups with President Biden in Michigan (by 12 points), Wisconsin (10 points), Arizona (eight points) and Pennsylvania (six points) -  all states flipped by Biden in 2020 and offering more than enough to hand a 2024 win to Trump. At the same time, other Republicans fear a 2024 Trump candidacy would be counter-productive, inviting huge waves of counter-mobilisation from Democrats that were decisive in the 2018 and 2020 elections.