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A flurry of polls in the home stretch and an update of the exercise I (and many others) have been conducting for months now: an examination of 2020 poll averages under a “poll error like 2016” scenario.

States where the split between the two candidates is smaller than the polling error from 2016 will likely decide this election. In descending order of Electoral Votes, these include:

  • Florida (29 votes) – Most polls close at 11am AEDT, but all will close by 12pm AEDT. Trump won Florida by 1.2 points in 2016, Biden currently shows a lead of 1.7 in polling, but this is well below the 2016 polling error of 2.8 points.
  • Pennsylvania (20 votes) – Polls close at 12pm AEDT. Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.7 points in 2016. Biden currently leads by 2.5 points in the polls, but the 2016 polling error was 4.2 points.
  • Ohio (18 votes) – Polls close at 11:30am AEDT. Clinton won Ohio in 2016, but the polling underestimated Trump by 6.9 points. Current polling is a dead heat between Trump and Biden.
  • North Carolina (15 votes) – Polls close at 11:30am AEDT. Trump won North Carolina by 3.7 points in 2016. Biden currently has a slim 0.6 point lead in the polls, but this is well short of the 5.3 polling error in 2016.
  • Arizona (11 votes) – Polls close at 1pm AEDT. Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016. Current polling is neck and neck and the poll error in 2016 was 1.7 points.
  • Minnesota (10 votes) – Polls close at 1pm AEDT. Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5 points in 2016. Biden has a 4.7 point lead in the polls, but the 2016 poll underestimated Trump by 5.7 points in Minnesota.
  • Wisconsin (10 votes) – Polls close at 1pm AEDT. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.7 points in 2016. Biden has a significant 6.4 point lead in the polls, but this is still smaller than the 2016 polling error of 7.2 points.
  • Iowa (6 votes) – Polls close at 2pm AEDT. Trump won Iowa by a significant 9.5 points in 2016, but Biden currently has a 1 point lead. The 5.7 point polling error in 2016 means there’s a high likelihood Iowa will go to Trump again.

No matter where you are on the politics, I know we all hope for a fair, free and above all peaceful Election Day and days following.

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