American Daily: May 23, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

23 May 2012





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The Gatsby trailer

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

23 May 2012


Promo photo for Baz Luhrmann's The Great Gatsby film

I've never come across anyone who shares this opinion, but I didn't have a problem with Baz Luhrmann's use of contemporary pop music in his turn-of-the-20th-Century film Moulin Rouge! In fact, I didn't really have a problem with anything else about the movie — I thought it was a fine, fluffy couple of hours of entertainment. And the pop music worked because the film so determinedly avoided representing reality anyway. In the universe Luhrmann constructed, Parisian dancers could rock out to "Smells Like Teen Spirit" in 1900 because spectacle took precedence over historical fact.

The trailer for Luhrmann's new film, an adaptation for The Great Gatsby, is out (it seems to be exclusive to Apple and unembeddable — thanks so much, guys UPDATE: now on YouTube), and, like Moulin Rouge!, it is laden with contemporary music. The effect here, however, is jarring. Gatsby is a story so intrinsically connected with a particular time period, with a style of music so distinctive that it defined the era — the Jazz Age. Hopefully the film itself won't feature Kanye West or dodgy covers of U2.

When Luhrmann's project was first announced, I said that I doubted his ability to effectively tell this most American of stories. The trailer doesn't have me feeling any more optimistic. Gatsby is a subtle and nuanced story set amidst opulence and ostentation. Luhrmann, as is his style, seems to only see the opulence. Maybe this teaser is misleading. But nothing here makes me believe Luhrmann's film will be anything but a mess.


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American Daily: May 22, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

22 May 2012



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Chart of the day: Tipping point states

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

22 May 2012


This chart from Nate Silver is a bit old in Internet time (i.e. a few weeks), but it's still great:

A chart by Nate Silver showing cumulative electoral vote totals

Silver explains:

Read More

The most rigorous way to define this is to sort the states in order of the most Democratic to the least Democratic, or most Republican to least Republican. Then count up the number of votes the candidate accumulates as he wins successively more difficult states. The state that provides him with the 270th electoral vote, clinching an Electoral College majority, is the swingiest state — the specific term I use for it is the “tipping point state.”

From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)

Australian politics buffs might recognise this as being similar in concept to the pendulum graphs you see around election time here. The idea is that since swings tend to be fairly uniform in nature, you can pinpoint the most important seats in any given race by locating the tipping point — the spot where a victory gives one side or another the requisite numbers for victory. In 2008, as the graphic shows, it was Obama's victory in Colorado that secured him the presidency. Interestingly, the more famed swing state of Ohio was actually just gravy.

Naturally, the tipping point changes over time. According to Silver, in 1984 it was Michigan. In 2008, Michigan only took Obama to 184 electoral college votes — he had to add on another 86 to win.

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More on the Obama of conservative imagination

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

22 May 2012


Steve Benen argues that conservatives are trying to fight the 2008 campaign again, but it won't work. Americans know Obama too well now:

Last week, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R) took on President Obama's record, arguing, "President Obama hasn't run anything before he was elected President of the United States. Never ran a state, never a business, never ran a lemonade stand."

The focus groups must have loved this, because Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus argued yesterday:

"[N]o matter what David Axelrod may say, President Obama's private business experience hasn't seen the inside of a lemonade stand."

This is a pretty standard criticism for any presidential candidate whose background is legislative work. Recent major-party nominees like John McCain, John Kerry, and Bob Dole — none of whom served as a governor or business leader — faced similar critiques.

But as we've talked about before, these criticisms of Obama's record were made four years ago. Since early 2009, he's been president of the United States during a time of foreign and domestic crises. Obama may not have led a state or a business before getting elected, but he led a nation after getting elected.

I understand the urge the right has to re-examine what they dislike about Barack Obama before he became president, but Benen is right. It won't work. Republicans can criticise Obama for what he's done. They can criticise him for what Americans believe he has done. But they can't credibly criticise him on the grounds of experience any more. As much as they'd like to tee off anew, Republicans are only going to win this election if they play the ball as it lays.

Previously on this topic: here, here, here, and here.


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American Daily: May 21, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

21 May 2012



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On Obama's use of drone warfare

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

21 May 2012


I don’t love drones. I think there’s definitely room for criticism of how the US government is using them. But here’s the thing:

In 2001, al Qaeda attacked the United States. The administration at the time, supported by Congress, invaded Afghanistan, and then used the attack to justify an invasion of Iraq. The result of these two wars was that huge numbers of foreign civilians died. Also, not much happened to al Qaeda.

When Barack Obama came into power in 2009, he escalated the use of drones but greatly scaled back the two wars the previous administration started. Yes, drones kill civilians, but they kill far fewer civilians than when the US government’s approach to preventing terrorism involved using ground forces to invade foreign countries. This is an improvement!

It’s not perfect, but it’s a step in the right direction. And politics can only ever be about moving in the right direction. By all means, make criticisms of Obama’s use of drone warfare! But also remember the style of warfare that tactic replaced. Critics of the Obama administration seem to have developed a certain amnesia on this front.


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American Daily: May 18, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

18 May 2012



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Rahm "livid" over Ricketts

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

18 May 2012


At American Review today, I return to a theme I've touched on before: the gulf between conservative perceptions of Barack Obama and those of the general American population. This comes on the heels of a New York Times report revealing that a coterie of Republican strategists were trying to put together an ad campaign using Obama's controversial former pastor Jeremiah Wright against the President. Here's the gist of my piece:

The scheme is, according to the Times, still in preliminary stages, and [billionaire donor Joe] Ricketts is yet to approve it. Which is lucky, because as currently consituted, I'm missing the part where it's brutally effective. Jeremiah Wright? Again?

Yet this seems to be a pattern running through Republican attempts to unseat Obama this campaign season. Conservatives are convinced that the President was given a free pass by a napping media in the 2008 campaign. They believe he was insufficiently vetted, and that both reporters and the campaign of Republican nominee John McCain failed to draw the public's attention to parts of Obama's biography that the right considered troubling. After three years in office and with two books penned by the President readily available in stores across the United States, many on the right are still firmly convinced that Obama is a mystery man about whom the American public knows little.

Since my piece went up, the Romney campaign has (wisely) rejected the commercial and Ricketts has distanced himself from the scheme. (The Times stands by its reporting.) Meanwhile, Chicago mayor and former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is reportedly furious with Ricketts, whose family owns the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is not returning calls from the Ricketts family and is “livid” over a New York Times report that Joe Ricketts commissioned a proposal for a multimillion-dollar ad campaign linking President Obama to the president’s former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, according to an Emanuel aide.

Joe Ricketts’s children, which include Obama bundler Laura Ricketts, bought the Chicago Cubs in 2009 and have been in talks with the city about renovating the team’s 98-year-old stadium, Wrigley Field.

That appears to be on hold now.

[...]

The Ricketts family is seeking taxpayer funding for the renovations. Emanuel has reportedly sought to put $100 million in tax incentives into the deal.

If Emanuel really is nixing plans to renovate a stadium because he doesn't like a team owner's politics, this is a gross abuse of power. Ricketts might have been interested in running a crazy and rather racist ad campaign, but that doesn't mean he should be treated any differently by his mayor. One shady political turn doesn't deserve another.


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Quote of the day

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

18 May 2012


Mitt Romney

“I’m not familiar, precisely, with exactly what I said, but I stand by what I said, whatever it was.”

Oh Mitt.


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